Final Report - Asian Development Bank

Asian Development Bank TA7343 Ho Chi Minh City MRT Line 2 Project
MVA Asia Ltd Final Report – November 2010
3.5.5 Thus in the case of Lines 1 and 2 the trains operating on each line would not be able to run
on the tracks of the other line. In other words, inter-operability between Lines 1 and 2 would
not be possible. During TA4862, this issue was studied in some depth to determine: (a)
whether inter-operability between these lines was a critical issue; and (b) whether the 3 rd rail
technology and selected train / design characteristics were the right choice for Line 2.
Inter-Operability on HCMC MRT Network
3.5.6 After careful study of the planned HCMC MRT network, it was concluded as follows:
Inter-operability between groups of lines would be desirable, but full inter-operability
between all lines across the whole network was neither practical nor necessary (as
noted with other major cities)
Physical connection between Lines 1 and 2 (which would have to be at or near Ben
Thanh Station) would be extremely difficult if not impossible, due to the many high rise
buildings and committed land plots in the area
Inter-operability between Lines 2 and 6 on the other hand was essential, since Line 6
would share the Line 2 depot (refer to earlier discussion)
Under the Latest Master Plan, Line 1 and Line 3A would necessarily be designed to the
same standards for the same rolling stock; with the possible connection of Line 3B to
Line 3A, then inter-operability between these lines was desirable
3.5.7 Following on from this, it was agreed with MAUR that the MRT lines should be planned as
two main groups: inter-operability within each group of lines would be desirable or essential;
whilst inter-operability between different groups was not essential. The two groups of lines
are as follows, whilst Line 4 remains subject to further study:
Lines 1, 3A, 3B
Lines 2, 6 and possibly 5
3.6 Transport Demand Forecasts
Overview
3.6.1 Travel demand forecasts for HCMC, including the whole MRT network, were prepared during
the early stages of the TA4862 study. A network based multi-modal forecasting model was
developed and calibrated to a base year of 2007, and forecasts were derived for design years
of 2015 (tentative opening for Line 2) and 2025 (assumed completion of full MRT master
plan). It is noted that these are “notional” design years since actual dates for expected
opening of the various lines may change.
3.6.2 This chapter draws on data and forecasts from the previous study. It should be noted that no
further detailed demand forecasting studies have been carried out under the current TA.
3.6.3 Transport forecasts were prepared using a state-of-the-art, 4-stage, multi-modal forecasting
model based on the CUBE Voyager software. The model coverage included the whole of the
greater HCMC area together with parts of the adjoining Dong Nai, Binh Duong and Long An
provinces. Fares for all lines were assumed to be VND 4,000 per boarding at 2007 prices
(i.e. adjusted for future years in line with inflation), which is based on comparison with bus
fares, allowing for the higher comfort, reliability and convenience of MRT.
3.6.4 In order to reflect the Government policy objectives, forecasting assumptions and inputs for
the models were set accordingly, reflecting the major policy and other measures which may
be required in future. On this basis the model predicts 44% of trips at year 2025 by public
transport to, from and within the MRT network area. Sensitivity tests were carried out to
understand the implications on MRT patronage if these policy targets could not be achieved
Land Use Context
3.6.5 As noted, the transport demand model covered the whole of HCMC, including surrounding
provinces. Within this area, the planned MRT network will cover just the central part of the
city, roughly that area bounded by Ring Road No 2. For the purpose of this study, this central
area covered by the MRT network is referred to as the “Metro Area”. It is useful to review the
existing and forecast populations within these areas as shown in Table 3.2. Similar figures
for employment forecasts are shown in Table 3.3.
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