Final Report - Asian Development Bank

Asian Development Bank TA7343 Ho Chi Minh City MRT Line 2 Project
MVA Asia Ltd Final Report – November 2010
Figure 3.9 Ramp-up Effect
Sensitivity Tests
3.6.30 In order to understand the uncertainty and risk in the demand projections, a number of
sensitivity tests were carried out. Key findings are summarised below.
Trend Forecasts
3.6.31 As noted earlier, the above demand models were adjusted to reflect the Government “policy”
objective of achieving 40-50% PT mode share by 2025. This will entail a massive shift in
travel behaviour and introduction of some very strong transport and policy initiatives. Clearly
there is a risk that this may not happen as quickly or to the extent targeted. Therefore
forecasts were developed for a “trend” scenario – still based on major PT transport
improvements and strong policy initiatives, but with parameter values based on the
consultants’ experience of what has been achieved in other cities.
3.6.32 This scenario resulted in a much lower PT mode share at 2025 as illustrated in Figure 3.10
below. Under this scenario ridership demand for Line 2 (still based on the master plan
network) is estimated at 135,000 in 2015, and 405,000 passengers in 2025. These compare
to 174,000 and 594,000 respectively under the master plan policy scenario.
Figure 3.10 Projected Modal Split in 2025 – Trend Case Scenario
Motorcycle
+ Bicycle
49%
Total Trips
Fare Sensitivity
Public
Transport
22%
Car
29%
Ferry, 0.4%
PT long
distance,
10.4%
3-14
Public Transport
Boardings
Rail, 30.7%
Bus, 58.5%
3.6.33 The fare assumed on Line 2 (and other MRT Lines) in the forecasts above is VND4,000 per
boarding (constant in real terms, i.e. adjusted for future years in line with inflation). Sensitivity
tests indicated that this fare would be close to optimum for maximising revenues at year
2015, but that by year 2025 a higher fare of VND6-7,000 would yield higher revenues, as a
result of increasing prosperity and hence willingness to pay for the premium service.