Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study Transport - WBC-INCO Net

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, !" # $ $ $%& Traffic in the region dropped drastically during the 90'ies - except in Albania - but it is now slowly recovering. In order to establish a common and consistent basis for the selection and assessment of projects, a traffic forecasting model for the Core Network was developed. Projections are made for the period 2001-2025. In the moderate growth scenario, road traffic will increase by 200-300%, except in Albania, where the growth will be substantially higher. Rail traffic will grow at a much slower pace: 60-140%. Growth in inland waterway transport is estimated at 160-215% and air traffic at 315-830%. By the end of the period, vehicle ownership and trip rates will have reached the levels which are currently found in many West European countries. The current traffic volumes on the roads of the Core Network is below 10,000 vehicles per day, on the majority of links, and only few links, primarily those close to the capitals, have more than 20,000 vehicles per day. The railways presently have substantially less than 1 million passengers a year, on most lines, and freight transport is concentrated in Croatia and on Corridor X. The forecasted strong increase in road transport in the coming years will significantly change the modal split for land transport and the long-term capacity requirements of the network. 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% Albania Growth in freight traffic: 2001- 2025 Moderate scenario Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia Macedonia Serbia and Montenegro Inland waterway Rail Truck 6
900% 800% 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% !" # $ $ $%& Growth in passenger traffic: 2001- 2025 Moderate scenario Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia Macedonia Serbia and Montenegro Air Rail Car Growth in passenger and freight traffic on the Core Network 2001 - 2025, moderate economic scenario. , $ The Core Network includes some 6,000 km of road and 4,300 km of railway line which have been assessed by REBIS. The geometrical characteristics of the road Core Network varies substantially - from narrow 2-lane roads in many areas to 4-lane roads and motorways at main links. Generally, the roads have sufficient capacity to carry the present and estimated short- to medium-term increase in traffic, but over 70% of the roads are in need of some form of pavement renewal. In the short term, investments should, therefore, focus on this issue. The best pavement conditions are found in Croatia, whereas many roads in Albania need complete re-construction. Also, the railway network generally has sufficient capacity in the foreseeable future. However, most lines need modernisation, and there is a severe backlog in maintenance which, in some areas, reduces the operational capacity and travel speed substantially. 85% of the network is single track, and only 10% is classified as being in good condition. The dissolution of the Yugoslav Federation led to the creation of over 5,000 km of new border line and a shift in transport flows over previous border crossings. In spite of the general decline in traffic over the past decade, this has led to long 7
Page 1 and 2: European Commission 2000 CARDS Prog
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Page 48 and 49: Figure 2.12 Projected road traffic
Page 50 and 51: Figure 2.14 Projected rail freight
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Project N° Project Name Corridor/
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