Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study Transport - WBC-INCO Net

!" # $ $ $%&
For each mode of transport a forecast model is constructed. The assumed
growth rates of GDP and population and the assumed elasticities jointly determine
the forecasted level of traffic for each country and mode of transport.
For road and rail transport, separate sub-models are developed for passenger
transport and for freight transport. It is expected that passenger and freight
transport will grow at different rates when GDP increases.
Substitution between the various modes of transport and network effects are not
explicitly treated in the model. However, as a result of the assumed elasticities
for the different types of transport, the market share for these will change when
GDP increases.
Specific seaport forecasts have not been prepared as a part of the model. This
issue is further dealt with in Chapter 9.1.1.
,%, ! $
For each country, the following data form inputs to the model:
• current level and expected growth of GDP (input for road, rail, waterway
and air model)
• current level and expected growth of population (input for road, rail and air
model)
• current level of car ownership (input for road model)
• current traffic levels on the network (input for road, rail, waterway and air
model).
The following additional data may be included in the model, if available:
• index of fixed vehicle costs
• index of variable vehicle costs
- affected by taxation
- affected by time savings and improved infrastructure
Table 2.8 shows the expected growth in GDP and population for each country
for three different scenarios.
47