Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study Transport - WBC-INCO Net

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!" # $ $ $%& waiting times and unpredictable customs procedures at some stations - in particular for the transport of goods. The problems are largely related to regulatory and procedural issues, and several studies and projects address these. There are, however, still a limited number of border crossings where physical improvements are required. Infrastructure investments seem needed at 14 out of the 58 border stations on the Core Network, and further studies are required for about 11. , - "' $ The present network characteristics of roads and railways have been compared to the forecasted traffic levels in 2015, and the investment required to bring the networks up to "acceptable European standard" by 2015 has been assessed. The definition of road standards is based on the AGR agreement which i.a. sets a minimum width of 2-lane roads at 7 m. Design speeds have, in general, been set at 80 km/h (120 km/h for motorways). The analyses showed that, upon completion of ongoing or already committed projects, the majority of roads will have the sufficient capacity by 2015. 13% of the roads will need widening and over 70% will need improvement or replacement of pavements. Also, some urban by-passes will be needed. The total long-term investment requirement is estimated at EUR 4 billion. For the railways, the standards are based on the AGC and AGCT agreements. However, the upgrading of the complete Core Network to these standards would clearly be neither feasible nor affordable within the given time frame. It has, therefore, been assumed that only Corridors X, Xb, Vb and part of Vc will be upgraded to 160 km/h and double track. For other lines, basic modernisation has been assumed, and speeds have been set at a maximum of 100-120 km/h. Even with these reduced standards, the total long-term investment requirement by 2015 will be around EUR 12 billion, which is unrealistic - given the severe financial difficulties and the relatively low market share of the railways - and not economically feasible. The challenges of the railways are further described below. Similar calculations of investment requirements have been made for each of the countries and compared to the estimated accumulated GDP during the period. The calculations show that in Albania and Croatia required investments will be about 1% of the total GDP. In Bosnia and Herzegovina and FYRO Macedonia the corresponding figure is around 2.5% and in Serbia and Montenegro 3%. In comparison, the TINA (Transport Infrastructure Needs Assessment) defined 1.5% of total GDP as the maximum level of investment in the regional road and railway networks, and in reality, much less has been spent. The identified needs for improvement of border crossings amount to approx. EUR 70 million. Although this amount is small compared to the required investments in road and rail infrastructure, the benefits to regional traffic of such improvements will be significant. 8
!" # $ $ $%& The long-term requirements for the sustainable maintenance of the core road and rail network are estimated at EUR 100-150 million/year. , ' !$ One of the main aims of the REBIS project is to prepare investments plans for the development of the Core Network in the short and medium term, with particular emphasis on projects which are suitable for international co-financing. This has been accomplished through a comprehensive and dialogue-based process, involving national authorities in the region as well as other stakeholders. In close dialogue with the national authorities, more than 200 projects have been identified and assessed. Pre-feasibility studies have been carried out for 20 projects. The pre-feasibility studies formed an important basis for the preparation of the short-term investment plan, and the results may also be used, subsequently, by the national authorities and IFIs to decide whether and how to proceed with these projects. The proposed short-term investment plan includes the projects on which action needs to be taken within the coming two years. The plan covers the period 2004-09. It reflects the policy recommendations presented in this report as well as the national priorities and plans of the countries. The total investment costs of the plan are at a level which seems affordable, and the plan targets at a reasonable balance between countries, modes and project types. The plan includes a number of proposed new projects as well as ongoing and already committed projects which will be implemented during the period. The implications of the plan can be summarised as follows: + ( ,-% ( . ' (( ! ' /01 2/3 34300 542 2 26 356 16 6 7 (# ' 3 55 25 50 The proposed investment during the period 2004-09 amounts to EUR 3.8 billion which represents 0.5% - 1.4% of the total GDP in the countries during the period. 60% of the investment relates to the road sector and 30% to the railway sector. The projects mostly concern upgrading, rehabilitation or reconstruction of existing infrastructure. 32% of the investment falls in Corridor X and its branches and 23% in Corridors Vb and Vc. ' ) * 9
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