Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study Transport - WBC-INCO Net

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During the first phase of the study, a PC based forecasting model for goods and
freight transport on the Core Network was developed. Using the model, forecasts
were made for a 20 year period. The model was specifically developed
with a view to establishing a common and consistent basis for the many prefeasibility
studies to be carried out within REBIS and to provide an overview of
the expected traffic development on the Core Network.
The model takes, as a starting point, existing traffic volumes and predicts the
estimated levels of traffic by 2006, 2015 and 2025. A GIS application has been
developed which allows for the presentation of model results on maps for road
and rail traffic. The model is documented in Appendix 3: Traffic Projections,
and an overview of model and the assumptions is presented in the following.
At present the model is more flexible than the availability of data justifies. This
is in order to consistently analyse and compare different scenarios in the region
and to allow for improvements to the model as additional/more updated - reliable
data become available.
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The traffic situation has started to improve after the difficult period for the region
in the late 1990s. The figures below present forecasted road and rail traffic
on the core network for 2006 - assuming a moderate economic growth scenario
for the region in the coming years. The forecasts do not take account of possible
changes in visa regimes which could affect bilateral trade and subsequent
traffic volumes between neighbouring countries in the future.
Generally, data for current traffic is more reliable for road than rail traffic,
which often has to be estimated on the basis of uncertain assumptions. For
some rail sections, data on current traffic is not available. Despite the uncertainties,
the figures illustrate clearly the demand for the corridors and routes on the
core network.
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