Somalia: Creating Space for Fresh Approaches to Peacebuilding

john paul lederach
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local and wider populations in affected geographies. I start with the engagement
proposals.
Exploration of theories of change suggests a process that cuts to the bare bones
in order to lift out and consider some key assumptions. It requires the formulation
of how a set of actions relate to expected outcomes, or in some cases unfolding
processes. In its simplest form it requires us to suggest how an activity will
increase or decrease particular behaviors or outcomes. In a complex and multivariate
context this initial attempt will necessarily be reductionist. The purpose
here it to provoke the imagination necessary to lift out what too often are implicit
assumptions, an exercise that has been missing from much of the public, policy
and legal debates.
As illustration I will propose a few theories of change. I have divided these into
two levels of engagement or isolation: approaches to grey area of civil society and
approaches to people in positions of, or close to, leadership in designated terrorist
groups.
Engagement
With reference to the civil society, the “grey area” with proximity to designated
groups, increased engagement (contact, consultation and dialogue) will
• increase accuracy of assessment about key grievances and concerns leading
to increased capacity to recognize opportunity and address issues in ways that
respond to these grievances and diminish justification for violence;
• increase the consideration of alternative views of contested issues and history
(thus encouraging views other than those as providing the justification for
violence by dominant groups) opening potential for consideration and reconsideration
of options that reduce violence;
• increase understanding of competing internal constituencies and varying perspectives
and narratives existent within the wider civil society, affected by the
violence that will lead to increased constructive dialogue and greater influencing
of decisions, reducing the narrow control of internal decisions;
• increase the understanding of foreign concerns and interests thereby reducing
fear and increasing different views of threat and enmity;
• increase wider participation and influence the rise of alternative leadership;
• increase capacity to identify opportunities for constructive change in the
short-term, initiating the social platforms necessary for long-term change, and
increase capacity for dialogue and decrease violence as the defining approach.
With leadership of designated groups engagement will
• increase understanding of their key grievances, create potential openness to
alternatives and will augment capacity to identify opportunities for change
resulting in increased potential to build alternatives to violence;