Community-based Sectors for the New England Groundfish Fishery

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Table A2: Prices Projections Used for Economic Analyses Southern New England Georges Bank Gulf of Cape Cod Maine Southern New England Georges Bank Georges Northern Southern Gulf of Witch Yellowtail Yellowtail Yellowtail Winter American Winter Winter Gulf of Georges Bank Windowpane Windowpane Maine White Year Flounder Flounder Founder Flounder Flounder Plaice Flounder Flounder Maine Cod Bank Cod Haddock Flounder Flounder Redfish Haddock Pollock Hake Monkfish 2006 1.43 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.21 1.25 1.21 1.21 1.61 1.61 1.02 0.54 0.54 0.54 1.02 0.57 0.86 0.80 2007 1.45 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.21 1.25 1.21 1.21 1.69 1.69 0.97 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.97 0.59 0.91 0.76 2008 1.46 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.21 1.25 1.21 1.21 1.69 1.69 0.96 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.96 0.60 0.96 0.75 2009 1.48 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.23 1.28 1.23 1.23 1.65 1.65 0.99 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.99 0.55 1.01 0.76 2010 1.50 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.23 1.28 1.23 1.23 1.58 1.58 1.01 0.58 0.58 0.54 1.01 0.54 0.90 0.75 2011 1.52 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.23 1.28 1.23 1.23 1.50 1.50 1.02 0.60 0.60 0.54 1.02 0.54 0.84 0.74 2012 1.54 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.23 1.28 1.23 1.23 1.44 1.44 1.04 0.62 0.62 0.55 1.04 0.54 0.79 0.73 2013 1.55 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.23 1.28 1.23 1.23 1.39 1.39 1.05 0.63 0.63 0.55 1.05 0.55 0.76 0.73 2014 1.56 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.24 1.29 1.24 1.24 1.37 1.37 1.07 0.64 0.64 0.55 1.07 0.54 0.76 0.73 2015 1.57 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.24 1.29 1.24 1.24 1.34 1.34 1.07 0.63 0.63 0.55 1.07 0.56 0.77 0.72 2016 1.58 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.24 1.30 1.24 1.24 1.31 1.31 1.08 0.63 0.63 0.55 1.08 0.57 0.78 0.72 2017 1.59 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.25 1.30 1.25 1.25 1.28 1.28 1.10 0.64 0.64 0.56 1.10 0.57 0.79 0.72 2018 1.59 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.25 1.31 1.25 1.25 1.27 1.27 1.10 0.64 0.64 0.56 1.10 0.59 0.80 0.71 2019 1.60 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.26 1.32 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.11 0.64 0.64 0.56 1.11 0.60 0.81 0.71 2020 1.61 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.26 1.33 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.11 0.65 0.65 0.56 1.11 0.61 0.82 0.71 2021 1.61 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.27 1.33 1.27 1.27 1.26 1.26 1.12 0.65 0.65 0.56 1.12 0.62 0.83 0.71 2022 1.62 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.27 1.34 1.27 1.27 1.26 1.26 1.12 0.65 0.65 0.57 1.12 0.63 0.83 0.72 2023 1.62 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.28 1.35 1.28 1.28 1.26 1.26 1.13 0.65 0.65 0.57 1.13 0.64 0.84 0.72 2024 1.63 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.28 1.35 1.28 1.28 1.26 1.26 1.13 0.66 0.66 0.57 1.13 0.65 0.85 0.72 2025 1.63 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.29 1.36 1.29 1.29 1.26 1.26 1.14 0.66 0.66 0.57 1.14 0.66 0.86 0.72 2026 1.63 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.29 1.37 1.29 1.29 1.27 1.27 1.14 0.66 0.66 0.57 1.14 0.66 0.86 0.72 2027 1.64 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.30 1.38 1.30 1.30 1.33 1.33 1.15 0.67 0.67 0.57 1.15 0.64 0.87 0.76 2028 1.64 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.30 1.38 1.30 1.30 1.33 1.33 1.15 0.67 0.67 0.58 1.15 0.65 0.88 0.75 2029 1.65 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.31 1.39 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.32 1.16 0.67 0.67 0.58 1.16 0.66 0.89 0.75 2030 1.65 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.31 1.40 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.32 1.16 0.68 0.68 0.58 1.16 0.67 0.89 0.76 2031 1.66 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.32 1.40 1.32 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.16 0.68 0.68 0.58 1.16 0.67 0.90 0.76 2032 1.66 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.32 1.41 1.32 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.17 0.68 0.68 0.58 1.17 0.68 0.91 0.76 2033 1.66 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.33 1.42 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.17 0.68 0.68 0.58 1.17 0.69 0.91 0.76 2034 1.67 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.33 1.42 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.18 0.69 0.69 0.59 1.18 0.69 0.92 0.76 2035 1.67 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.33 1.43 1.33 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.18 0.69 0.69 0.59 1.18 0.70 0.93 0.77 2036 1.67 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.34 1.43 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.19 0.69 0.69 0.59 1.19 0.71 0.93 0.77 2037 1.68 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.34 1.44 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.19 0.70 0.70 0.59 1.19 0.71 0.94 0.77 56
Appendix B: Groundfish Price Model Projection of revenues for groundfish sectors and permit banks requires a projection of the TACs the sector will be allocated, an estimate of the percentage of those TACs the sector will actually land, and an estimate of the prices sector members will receive. While sectors may be able to realize premium prices for the fish they land by improving quality or contracting directly with retailers or restaurants, it is difficult to project how large this premium might be. At the same time there are other factors that are likely to affect prices, particularly changes in overall landings of various species that result from changes in target TACs. Since some of these species are rebuilding and TACs are expected to rise, this may create downward pressure on prices. Secular upward trends in prices over time can also be expected and are likely to correlate with increases in disposable income of consumers. This is likely to result in increases in real prices independent of change in quantity landed and even greater increases in nominal prices before adjustment for inflation. Since a primary use of these price projections is to estimate the repayment period required for a permit bank to pay back a loan to acquire a permit, nominal rather than real prices are modeled. Prices are projected based on demand models for the regulated groundfish species and monkfish estimated with landings and revenue data from the Northeast Fishery Science Center’s commercial fisheries data for the years 1983 to 2005. Since the intent is to predict nominal prices, nominal prices are used to estimate demand models. Per capita disposable income (PCDI) for the New England region is used as an explanatory variable to capture secular temporal trends in prices. For future price predictions this requires predicting PCDI which is done on the using a simple OLS model of PCDI growth over time. The specifications used for the individual equations were linear-log (i.e. price per kilogram is regressed against the natural logs of the regressors). This allows for a non-linear demand curve without imposing constant elasticity. With the exception of ocean pout, the natural log of PCDI was used in place of an intercept. The demand equations are estimate using a seemingly unrelated regression that includes price equations for monkfish, cod, haddock, winter flounder, witch flounder, yellowtail flounder, plaice, sand dab, white hake, pollock, ocean pout and redfish. In addition to own quantity landed, the models use combined roundfish or combined flatfish landings as explanatory variables in some equations. Import quantities and prices were not used in these models. An investigation of price relationships with imports suggested that import quantities are driven by domestic prices and landings but the reverse is not true. Despite parsimonious specifications with only two or three regressors, the price equations are highly significant. All regressors in all equations are significant at the 0.01 level with the exception of own quantity for witch flounder which had a p-value of 0.07. First order autocorrelation was present and corrected for in both systems of equations. The estimated equations used to predict prices in the simulations and summary statistics for them are given in the equations below
Page 1 and 2:
Community-based Sectors for the New
Page 3 and 4:
Table of Contents Executive Summary
Page 5 and 6:
Community leaders in Portland and P
Page 7 and 8: of community-based permit banks. Th
Page 9 and 10: 1.0 Introduction The groundfish fis
Page 11 and 12: Although Amendment 13 effectively e
Page 13 and 14: somewhat vague on how the allocatio
Page 15 and 16: 2.2 Experience with Existing Sector
Page 17 and 18: me to explore the idea further and
Page 19 and 20: period is that which was used to de
Page 21 and 22: shown above in Table 2. Revenue pro
Page 23 and 24: Table 3a: Port Clyde Sector Revenue
Page 25 and 26: ecruitment and could be either high
Page 27 and 28: increased. They also have caught a
Page 29 and 30: 3.2.1 Strawman Sector Structure and
Page 31 and 32: Table 8: Portland Sectors A and B V
Page 33 and 34: discussed earlier these price proje
Page 35 and 36: Table 9b: Portland Sector A Revenue
Page 37 and 38: Table 9d: Portland Sector B Revenue
Page 39 and 40: Table 10b: Portland Sector A Revenu
Page 41 and 42: Table 11b: Portland Sector B Specie
Page 43 and 44: vessels would be leased to sector v
Page 45 and 46: is ostensibly to reduce excess capa
Page 47 and 48: Table 15: Projected Total Revenue,
Page 49 and 50: later. However, rolling baselines c
Page 51 and 52: 4.4 Communities without Catch Histo
Page 53 and 54: opportunities for consolidation of
Page 55 and 56: References Alexander, Yvette 2006.M
Page 57: Appendix A: Landings and revenue pr
Page 61 and 62: Appendix C: Sector Proposals Submit
Page 63 and 64: Port Clyde Community Sector Glen Li
Page 65 and 66: Full Retention All fish caught 1. e
Page 67 and 68: Reasons for Existence: 1. end overf
Page 69 and 70: Gloucester Fixed Gear Sector Peter
Page 71 and 72: New Bedford Channel Trawl Sector Ri
Page 73 and 74: Point Judith / Southern New England
Page 75: Pier 6 Initiative Michael Walsh Req
show all

Community-based Sectors for the New England Groundfish Fishery

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?