National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce Technical Paper

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Three growth scenarios were modelled for construction employment—low, medium and high based on the known value of construction (283 projects have a value and 78 projects have no value attributed to them). The Taskforce considers projects with no listed value may not commence construction by 2015 (ABARE unpublished data): • The low-growth scenario is based on all advanced projects proceeding (75 projects). • The medium-growth scenario is based on all advanced projects plus 27 per cent of the value of less advanced projects (ie 50 per cent of the value of all projects on the ABARE database) proceeding. • The high-growth scenario is based on all advanced projects plus 63.5 per cent of the value of less advanced projects (ie 75 per cent of the value of all projects on the ABARE database) proceeding. The Taskforce then projected on this basis against the anticipated value of major resources projects and assumed demand for skills, at an occupational level (see Appendix I), that mirrors recent overall employment in engineering construction. Modelling includes the small number of projects likely to commence construction in 2016. 3.3 Modelling outcomes It is important to note construction jobs on resources projects can last from a few months to a few years, and over the period 2010–2016 construction workers are likely to have a number of jobs as they move from project to project. Overall projections for employment are as follows: • low-growth scenario with a peak of around 30,000 jobs during 2010 and 2011 and 102,000 short-term project jobs over the period 2010 to 2016 • medium-growth scenario with a peak of around 45,000 jobs during 2012 and 2013 and 170,000 short-term project jobs over the period 2010 to 2016 • high-growth scenario with a peak of around 70,000 jobs during 2012 and 2013 and 255,000 short-term project jobs over the period 2010 to 2016. 14 | National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce: Technical Paper
Demand for labour by year for project construction Figure 5 gives estimates of the potential number of construction workers required by the resources sector by year according to planned project capital expenditure over 2010 to 2015. For each of the projects the Taskforce estimated the construction periods using both known and estimated dates of operation and number of construction workers by capital expenditure. The Taskforce suggests the medium-growth scenario is most likely. It notes 60 of the 75 advanced projects are already under construction, and the remaining 15 are committed and generally expected to commence construction within the next two years. In terms of the less advanced projects, history indicates many are delayed as they go through the various approvals processes leading to a Final Investment Decision. Under this scenario, employment will gather momentum and peak in 2012 and 2013 possibly at around 45,000 jobs. The decline in estimated construction employment from 2014 is a result of uncertainty surrounding forward project activity and not necessarily indicative that construction activity will slow dramatically. Figure 5: Estimated construction employment by year–three growth scenarios 100 000 90 000 80 000 Number of jobs 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Low growth scenario Medium growth scenario High growth scenario Source: Taskforce estimates based on ABARE unpublished data Projections by occupation—construction skills Projections by occupation are shown in Table 2. The Taskforce notes most construction jobs will be short term and workers may move from job to job. Under each scenario, most additional demand for construction skills is projected to be for technicians and tradespeople, machinery operators and drivers and labourers. The projections were modelled from a base year of 2009, the latest year where a known value of construction engineering work and a known workforce by occupation is available (ABS 2010a; ABS 2010b). National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce: Technical Paper | 15
Page 1 and 2: RESOURCING THE FUTURE National Reso
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents 1. Introduction..
Page 5 and 6: List of tables and figures Tables T
Page 7 and 8: Figures Figure 1: Advanced projects
Page 9 and 10: 1. Introduction This paper outlines
Page 11 and 12: 2. Projects This chapter outlines m
Page 13 and 14: ABARE’s list also identifies 286
Page 15 and 16: Marillana - WA Lake Maitland / JAUR
Page 17 and 18: NCIG export terminal (Newcastle Coa
Page 19 and 20: 3. Demand for labour and skills The
Page 21: The RBA suggested this large pipeli
Page 25 and 26: Figure 6 shows Pit Crew’s total c
Page 27 and 28: Treasury expects export volumes wil
Page 29 and 30: electricians and fabrication engine
Page 31 and 32: On the basis of ESQ’s modelling,
Page 33 and 34: The number of people who leave jobs
Page 35 and 36: In its recent report prepared for S
Page 37 and 38: • After taking likely retirement
Page 39 and 40: Available data suggest while unempl
Page 41 and 42: Table 11 provides estimates of the
Page 43 and 44: Table 13 and Figure 11 show that un
Page 45 and 46: Figure 12: Projected growth in supp
Page 47 and 48: Overall, the resources sector’s s
Page 49 and 50: 4.3.3 Projected trends in higher ed
Page 51 and 52: Table 21: Number and percentage of
Page 53 and 54: 5. Where are the skills gaps? This
Page 55 and 56: 5.3 The potential for skills gaps T
Page 57 and 58: 5.6.3 Engineers Engineers Australia
Page 59 and 60: Treasury noted that as commercial p
Page 61 and 62: 5.8 Skills shortages are limited to
Page 63 and 64: Table 26: Pit Crew Management Consu
Page 65 and 66: 5.9.2 Professions In the short term
Page 67 and 68: Agricultural, Medical and Science T
Page 69 and 70: Technicians and tradespeople 37,833
Page 71 and 72: Appendix II—Detailed ABARE projec
Page 73 and 74:
Appendix III—Employed and unemplo
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Appendix IV—Higher education Line
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Completions and projections in sele
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Share of employment by field of stu
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Ongoing monitoring of the labour ma
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Figure 16: Number of suitable appli
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Table 37: Skill shortages in resour
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2. Main Elements of the SERA DEEWR
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SERA results SERA results are not i
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Incomplete recruitment exercises In
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National Resources Sector Employmen
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Q1. What is the name of your compan
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The next question is about how many
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The next two questions (7 and 8) ar
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Q9. What proportion of gross wages
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Q15. Provide information on those o
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Q19. How does your organisation mos
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Thank you for taking the time to co
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Appendix VII—Acronyms AAC ABARE A
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Appendix VIII—References Access E
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WA Department of Training and Workf
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