National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce Technical Paper

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The outcome of the QMCA’s analysis for Queensland is shown in Figure 7. Figure 7: 2010 Major projects workforce demand—Queensland, 2009–10 to 2015–16 25 000 20 000 Number of jobs 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Year Construction Workforce Project Staff Total Resources Source: QMCA 2010 Figure 7 includes expected workforce demand for resources and other construction projects. Should the current planned mine, ports, rail and resources infrastructure projects proceed in parallel with the CSM-LNG energy projects as currently predicted, QMCA suggests major contractors will need to increase their overall capacity from 10,760 employees (2010–11 fourquarter average) to 23,660 in 2012–13. Overall levels of project staff will need to increase by approximately 3,220 (120 per cent) and construction workers by 9,670 (120 per cent). QMCA also notes the steep fall off from 2013–14 is a result of uncertainty surrounding forward project activity and not necessarily indicative that construction activity will slow dramatically. The Taskforce’s medium-growth scenario is therefore broadly consistent with these state views. 3.4 Mining production Demand for operational skills in mining will increase over the period to 2015 and beyond. The key to this growth is export markets, especially in Asia. For example, ABARE data indicate Australia exports around two-thirds of its coal production (ABARE 2010). The world economy, including Australia’s key Asian export markets, appears to be strengthening. In its May 2010 statement on monetary policy, the RBA observed ‘the IMF [International Monetary Fund] now forecasts world output to expand by around 4 ¼ per cent in 2010, with a similar expansion in 2011’ (RBA 2010). The RBA also noted ‘the recovery in Asia has been particularly strong, and growth has also picked up in other emerging countries’ and stated ‘momentum in the Chinese economy remains strong and has shown few signs of slowing recently’. In the 2010–11 Budget papers, Treasury also noted strengthening commodity demand has been driven by a recovery in global industrial production. 18 | National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce: Technical Paper
Treasury expects export volumes will increase in line with the anticipated recovery in global economic activity and grow by 5 per cent in 2010–11 and 6 per cent in 2011–12. Exports of non-rural commodities are expected to increase by 3.5 per cent in 2009–10, 8 per cent in 2010–11 and 7.5 per cent in 2011–12. Treasury also noted, according to ABARE estimates, the value of Australia’s LNG exports is projected to reach $13.5 billion by 2014–15 (Australian Treasury 2010a). Projections of output and commodity prices In March 2010, ABARE published its projections on likely trends in output and commodity prices. Appendix II lists the ABARE projections in major resource commodities over the period to 2015. These show strong growth in production, largely to serve export markets. ABARE suggests further strong growth in commodity prices. Over its outlook period to 2014–15, ABARE anticipates renewed demand from emerging economies such as China and India will continue to have a significant influence over energy and minerals commodity markets. ABARE also noted: • After falling considerably in early 2009, world prices for many energy and minerals commodities are forecast to recover in 2010 and 2011, supported by the improved outlook for world economic growth and the continued weakness of the US dollar. • Beyond 2011, prices are generally projected to decline in real terms but to remain above historical averages. • In the short term, supply capacity is expected to increase, although there could be challenges, such as higher project costs, price volatility and sovereign risk in some countries. • Australian export earnings from energy and minerals are projected to increase over the medium term, from $130 billion in 2009–10 to $175 billion in 2014–15 (in 2009–10 dollars), supported by recovering world demand and prices (ABARE 2010). Higher commodity prices and the anticipated strong growth in resources sector output will likely see a significant rise in demand for labour. 3.5 Demand for labour and skills in mining operations (excludes gas) 3.5.1 Modelling approach—mining operation skills DEEWR’s latest projections for employment growth between 2009–2010 and 2014–2015 in the mining industry are based on an average rate of 3.3 per cent per annum, which equates to around 28,000 new jobs. Employment across all industries is forecast to grow at 1.8 per cent annually in the five years to 2014–2015 (DEEWR 2010b). The Taskforce has modelled projections of potential employment growth for mining operations based on the approach used by the National Institute of Labour Studies (NILS) (Lowry et al 2006) in preparing projections of employment growth on behalf of the Chamber of Mines in Western Australia in 2006 and subsequently for the Minerals Council of Australia in 2008. This model appears to project recent employment changes reasonably well. National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce: Technical Paper | 19
Page 1 and 2: RESOURCING THE FUTURE National Reso
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents 1. Introduction..
Page 5 and 6: List of tables and figures Tables T
Page 7 and 8: Figures Figure 1: Advanced projects
Page 9 and 10: 1. Introduction This paper outlines
Page 11 and 12: 2. Projects This chapter outlines m
Page 13 and 14: ABARE’s list also identifies 286
Page 15 and 16: Marillana - WA Lake Maitland / JAUR
Page 17 and 18: NCIG export terminal (Newcastle Coa
Page 19 and 20: 3. Demand for labour and skills The
Page 21 and 22: The RBA suggested this large pipeli
Page 23 and 24: Demand for labour by year for proje
Page 25: Figure 6 shows Pit Crew’s total c
Page 29 and 30: electricians and fabrication engine
Page 31 and 32: On the basis of ESQ’s modelling,
Page 33 and 34: The number of people who leave jobs
Page 35 and 36: In its recent report prepared for S
Page 37 and 38: • After taking likely retirement
Page 39 and 40: Available data suggest while unempl
Page 41 and 42: Table 11 provides estimates of the
Page 43 and 44: Table 13 and Figure 11 show that un
Page 45 and 46: Figure 12: Projected growth in supp
Page 47 and 48: Overall, the resources sector’s s
Page 49 and 50: 4.3.3 Projected trends in higher ed
Page 51 and 52: Table 21: Number and percentage of
Page 53 and 54: 5. Where are the skills gaps? This
Page 55 and 56: 5.3 The potential for skills gaps T
Page 57 and 58: 5.6.3 Engineers Engineers Australia
Page 59 and 60: Treasury noted that as commercial p
Page 61 and 62: 5.8 Skills shortages are limited to
Page 63 and 64: Table 26: Pit Crew Management Consu
Page 65 and 66: 5.9.2 Professions In the short term
Page 67 and 68: Agricultural, Medical and Science T
Page 69 and 70: Technicians and tradespeople 37,833
Page 71 and 72: Appendix II—Detailed ABARE projec
Page 73 and 74: Appendix III—Employed and unemplo
Page 75 and 76: Appendix IV—Higher education Line
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Completions and projections in sele
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Share of employment by field of stu
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Ongoing monitoring of the labour ma
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Figure 16: Number of suitable appli
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Table 37: Skill shortages in resour
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2. Main Elements of the SERA DEEWR
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SERA results SERA results are not i
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Incomplete recruitment exercises In
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National Resources Sector Employmen
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Q1. What is the name of your compan
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The next question is about how many
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The next two questions (7 and 8) ar
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Q9. What proportion of gross wages
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Q15. Provide information on those o
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Q19. How does your organisation mos
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Thank you for taking the time to co
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Appendix VII—Acronyms AAC ABARE A
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Appendix VIII—References Access E
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WA Department of Training and Workf
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