National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce Technical Paper

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Retirements At the industry level, concerns have been expressed that the resources sector workforce is relatively old, leading to likely strong demand to replace retirees. Figure 8 examines the age profile of the mining and construction sectors compared to all industries as at February 2010. The data indicate the age profile of the sectors is similar to all industries. However the mining sector employs less people under 25 as a proportion, with 10 per cent of people employed in mining aged under 25, compared to 16 per cent in construction and all industries. The age profile for the mining sector for age 55 and beyond is lower than for all industries, which supports anecdotal evidence that people typically leave construction and mining before age 60. Figure 8: Age profile of the mining (includes oil and gas extraction) and construction industries, February 2010 30 Share of employment (per cent) 25 20 15 10 5 0 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65+ Age groups Mining Construction All Australian Industries Source: ABS 2010a DEEWR estimates of retirement from the mining and oil and gas industries, where people leave the workforce entirely, suggest 7 per cent of the current workforce will retire over the next five years, and 16 per cent over the next 10 years. The modelling appears broadly consistent with advice from the resources sector about potential retirement. The joint submission from the Minerals Council of Australia, the Chamber of Minerals and Energy Western Australia and Queensland Resources Council indicates the majority of employees within the minerals industry have a median age of 40, compared with a median age for all industries of 37. Information contained in the submission from APPEA shows, as of June 2008, 11.3 per cent of the oil and gas workforce were aged over 55, well below the national average of 15.5 per cent for the same period. Within the occupational groups across the mining sector, Taskforce analysis suggests a high proportion of managers (19 per cent) and machinery operators and drivers (16 per cent) are likely to retire in the next 10 years. This is significantly higher than other occupations, such as technicians and trade workers (11 per cent) and labourers (14 per cent). 26 | National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce: Technical Paper
In its recent report prepared for Skills Australia titled Economic modelling of skills demand (Access Economics 2009), Access Economics noted there is no single definition of replacement demand that is ‘correct’. Access Economics noted much labour market movement relates to turnover or replacement of existing workers, but this movement may or may not generate a training demand. Reasons include: • retirement (where the replacement worker would need training) • movement to another role with a different skill set (requiring training) • moving to another occupation but using the same skills set (not requiring training) • time out of the workforce (which may or may not require retraining or refresher training on return). Access Economics modelled retirement by broad occupation group and concluded that considered together, employment growth and retirements represent the number of job openings relevant to future qualification demand. The Taskforce has adopted a similar approach to determine likely demand for professionals. Table 7 estimates losses to retirement of mining employees by occupation over the five years from 2010 to 2015 following the Access Economics approach. The estimates assume overall losses by occupation for mining follow the pattern for overall national employment by occupation. The data suggest losses of professionals in mining to retirement will be around 2,700 in the five years from 2010 to 2015. Table 7: Projected losses from mining sector employment to retirement, 2010 to 2015, by occupation Occupation Mining 5-year loss (no.) Managers 15,166 -1,940 Professionals 26,460 -2,664 Technicians and tradespeople 43,696 -3,794 Community and personal service workers 327 -30 Clerical and administrative workers 14,307 -1,375 Sales workers 477 -35 Machinery operators and drivers 53,899 -5,427 Labourers 9,030 -868 Total 163,362 -16,133 Source: Taskforce analysis of Access Economics 2009 Summary In conclusion if replacement demand is 10 per cent, it appears around 16,000 job opportunities are likely to arise each year in mining (including around 3,000 retirements) and 2,000 in oil and gas (around 500 retirements) as workers leave the industry each year for other industries or to retire. National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce: Technical Paper | 27
Page 1 and 2: RESOURCING THE FUTURE National Reso
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents 1. Introduction..
Page 5 and 6: List of tables and figures Tables T
Page 7 and 8: Figures Figure 1: Advanced projects
Page 9 and 10: 1. Introduction This paper outlines
Page 11 and 12: 2. Projects This chapter outlines m
Page 13 and 14: ABARE’s list also identifies 286
Page 15 and 16: Marillana - WA Lake Maitland / JAUR
Page 17 and 18: NCIG export terminal (Newcastle Coa
Page 19 and 20: 3. Demand for labour and skills The
Page 21 and 22: The RBA suggested this large pipeli
Page 23 and 24: Demand for labour by year for proje
Page 25 and 26: Figure 6 shows Pit Crew’s total c
Page 27 and 28: Treasury expects export volumes wil
Page 29 and 30: electricians and fabrication engine
Page 31 and 32: On the basis of ESQ’s modelling,
Page 33: The number of people who leave jobs
Page 37 and 38: • After taking likely retirement
Page 39 and 40: Available data suggest while unempl
Page 41 and 42: Table 11 provides estimates of the
Page 43 and 44: Table 13 and Figure 11 show that un
Page 45 and 46: Figure 12: Projected growth in supp
Page 47 and 48: Overall, the resources sector’s s
Page 49 and 50: 4.3.3 Projected trends in higher ed
Page 51 and 52: Table 21: Number and percentage of
Page 53 and 54: 5. Where are the skills gaps? This
Page 55 and 56: 5.3 The potential for skills gaps T
Page 57 and 58: 5.6.3 Engineers Engineers Australia
Page 59 and 60: Treasury noted that as commercial p
Page 61 and 62: 5.8 Skills shortages are limited to
Page 63 and 64: Table 26: Pit Crew Management Consu
Page 65 and 66: 5.9.2 Professions In the short term
Page 67 and 68: Agricultural, Medical and Science T
Page 69 and 70: Technicians and tradespeople 37,833
Page 71 and 72: Appendix II—Detailed ABARE projec
Page 73 and 74: Appendix III—Employed and unemplo
Page 75 and 76: Appendix IV—Higher education Line
Page 77 and 78: Completions and projections in sele
Page 79 and 80: Share of employment by field of stu
Page 81 and 82: Ongoing monitoring of the labour ma
Page 83 and 84: Figure 16: Number of suitable appli
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Table 37: Skill shortages in resour
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2. Main Elements of the SERA DEEWR
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SERA results SERA results are not i
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Incomplete recruitment exercises In
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National Resources Sector Employmen
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Q1. What is the name of your compan
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The next question is about how many
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The next two questions (7 and 8) ar
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Q9. What proportion of gross wages
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Q15. Provide information on those o
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Q19. How does your organisation mos
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Thank you for taking the time to co
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Appendix VII—Acronyms AAC ABARE A
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Appendix VIII—References Access E
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WA Department of Training and Workf
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