National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce Technical Paper

Figure 9: Number and percentage change in apprentice and trainee completions by
state and territory, 2005 to 2009
NSW
9 400 (24.8%)
Vic
-3 300 (-7.4%)
States and territories
Qld
SA
WA
Tas
200 (3.7%)
2 100 (22.8%)
4 100 (43.2%)
8 000 (30.2%)
NT
0 (0%)
ACT
100 (4.0%)
-7 000 -5 000 -3 000 -1 000 1 000 3 000 5 000 7 000 9 000 11 000
Source: NCVER 2010
Number of completions
Projections of skills formation
The Taskforce engaged the NCVER to develop projections of the future supply of tradespeople
for 2010–2020 with three possible scenarios: best case, average and worst case. The estimates
for supply of tradespeople reflect supply to the overall national labour market and the
resources sector will need to compete with other industries to engage them.
NCVER’s analysis examines trends in commencements, completions and attrition, by trade, to
derive a net supply figure over the projection period:
• In the best case scenario, the highest contract commencement rate and the lowest
contract cancellation/withdrawal and attrition rates are used.
• In the average case scenario, average rates are used.
• In the worst case scenario, the lowest commencement rate and the highest
cancellation/withdrawal and attrition rates are used.
Resources sector trades expected to experience the highest rates of growth—short of the worst
case scenario occurring—include electricians, bricklayers, carpenters and joiners, fabrication
engineering tradespeople, and mechanical engineering tradespeople, with building and
engineering technicians, and electronics and telecommunications tradespeople faring less well.
32 | National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce: Technical Paper