Final Report - Pima Association of Governments

High Capacity Transit System Plan - Final Report June 2009
Future Conditions
3.0 FUTURE CONDITIONS
3.1 INTRODUCTION
Section 3.0 summarizes the assessment of future demographic and transportation conditions
based on a forecast horizon of 2040. This analysis was conducted in June 2008 and the information
presented is current as of that date. Some of the existing transit information has now changed, as some of
the transit improvements that were in the planning stages in June 2008 have now been implemented.
3.2 DEMOGRAPHICS AND LAND USE
Population Density
Figure 15 illustrates population density projections for the year 2040. These projections indicate
there will be increases in overall population, and much of the increase will occur in the outlying
portions of the study area. Major increases in population density in the central areas of Tucson
are not expected to occur. It is not anticipated that there will be a significant increase in the
number of TAZs with a population density of greater than 15 households per gross acre.
Projections indicate that density is expected to increase along the I‐10 corridor both northwest
and southeast of the city. Marana is projected to have an increase in population density, and this
increase is expected to occur around the I‐10 corridor. Sahuarita and areas south of Sahuarita are
estimated to have an increase in population density around the I‐19 corridor. Population density
is forecast to increase in the southeastern part of the study area between I‐10 and I‐19. Along 6th
Avenue south of Tucson the density is currently high, and this is expected to continue, with the
high density becoming more prevalent along this corridor as well as south of Tucson overall.
Houghton Road is projected to have increases in density; however, these increases will only be
moderate, and density around the corridor is not expected to be high.
Employment Density
Figure 16 illustrates employment density projections for the year 2040. Employment density is
expected to increase along the I‐10 corridor, both northwest and southeast of Tucson. The
Speedway Boulevard and Broadway Boulevard corridors are estimated to have an increase in
employment density east of Campbell Avenue. The area along Alvernon Way and Tucson
Boulevard between 36th Street and Valencia Road is estimated to experience considerable
increases in employment density. Some of the most significant increases in employment density
are projected along Stone Avenue and Euclid Avenue in the area between downtown Tucson and
River Road.
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