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symbolic dynamic models for highly varying power system loads

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19<br />

CSI<br />

= ∑( f<br />

χ i<br />

* fγi) /( f<br />

χi<br />

+ fγi)<br />

where ƒ χi is the fractional occurrence of i th common word in χ dictionary, ƒ γi is the<br />

fractional occurrence of i th common word in γ dictionary, and CSI max =0.5 (If the two<br />

signals are exactly identical). The lower the value of CSI, the higher the degree of<br />

dissimilarity between the two signals. Thus the value of CSI directly shows how much<br />

the two signals are in agreement.<br />

2.6 Forecasting a signal<br />

Attention turns to the <strong>for</strong>ecasting or prediction of future values of a signal. For<br />

this purpose, a dictionary can be <strong>for</strong>med by taking the instantaneous values in a signal at<br />

different points. Once the dictionary is <strong>for</strong>med, a word is selected randomly from the<br />

dictionary and without looking at its past history, the subsequent word is identified. This<br />

process continues until a long sequence of words is generated. Thereafter it is possible to<br />

predict the future data from the sequence.<br />

Model 1 (Single symbol checking)<br />

1 Form a dictionary [D,F] from data, where D is the dictionary and F is the<br />

fractional occurrence of words.<br />

2 Set count = 1.<br />

3 Load [D, F] into working dictionary [W D , W F ].<br />

4 Form CW F column, which is the cumulative frequency of occurrence. Now the<br />

dictionary is in the <strong>for</strong>m of [W D , W F , CW F ].

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