Annual Report 2008.pdf - SAMSI

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A Risk Map for Pyroclastic Flows: Combining Simulations and Data to Predict Rare Events 1:00-2:15 Lunch Chair of Afternoon Session Darren Wilkinson, University of Newcastle 2:15-3:15 Invited Talk Jeff Wu, Georgia Tech Some recent advances in data integration, modeling and design strategies for computer experiments 3:15-3:45 Break 3:45-5:15 Methodology Leanna House, Univ. of Durham Better Judgments through Multiple Model Ensembles Wednesday, May 16, 2007 Radisson RTP Samantha Prins, James Madison University Bayesian Uncertainty Assessment for Multicompartment Deterministic Simulation Models 9:00-9:30 Registration and Continental Breakfast Chair of Morning Session Bruce Pitman, Univ. of Buffalo 9:30-11:00 Air Quality Serge Guillas, Georgia Tech Calibration of an air quality model 11:00-11:30 Break Chunsheng Ma, Wichita State University Space-time downscaling of regional ozone forecasts with nonseparable covariance models 11:30-1:00 System Biology Michael Breen, EPA Systems Biology Models: Challenges and Applications Darren Wilkinson, University of Newcastle Parameter estimation for Systems Biology models
1:00-2:15 Lunch Chair of Afternoon Session Peter Reichert, EAWAG 2:15-3:15 Invited Talk David M. Steinberg, Tel Aviv University Computer Experiments with Complex Output 3:15-3:45 Break 3:45-5:15 Biological Models Ariel Cintron-Arias, SAMSI Estimation of Seasonal Reproductive Numbers and Transmission Rates SPEAKER ABSTRACTS Pierre A. Gremaud, N.C. State University Calibration of a Numerical Model for Cerebral Blood Flow Ariel Cintrόn-Arias SAMSI and North Carolina State University Center for Research in Scientific Computation ariel@samsi.info “Estimation of Seasonal Reproductive Numbers and Transmission Rates” The effective reproductive number is a fundamental parameter in the study of transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. This time-dependent parameter $\mathcal{R t }$ is an ongoing measure of transmission. An analysis of seasonal influenza epidemics follows from the estimation of both $\mathcal{R t }$ while using longitudinal incidence data in the United States. We also study seasonal epidemics using a differential equation model with periodic-time dependent transmission rates. Observed year to year variability in outbreak incidence can be explained by chaotic behaviour of the solutions of such models or by additional variability in transmission rate parameters in time. To gain insight into possible causes for year to year variability, we investigate the temporal change of the transmission parameter required for a model without chaotic behaviour that is required to reproduce measured data. Susie Bayarri University of Valencia and SAMSI Department of Statistics and Operations Research susie.bayarri@uv.es “Some Intriguing Methodological Issues when Statistically Analyzing Computer Model Data” The special methodological characteristics of (Bayesian) calibration and validation of complex computer models (with, in particular highly confounded parameters), result in very tricky
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NSF Annual Report 2007-2008 Submitt
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Education and Outreach • 2-Day Wo
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C. Directorate’s Summary of Chall
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National Leadership and Involvement
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D. Synopsis of Developments in Rese
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the efficient treatment of complex
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c) RANDOM MEDIA Much of the work of
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2. Human Resource Development SAMSI
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[it] from time to time.” (M. Rose
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Undergraduate Workshops 2007-08 Sum
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3. Education The impact of SAMSI co
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The working group Climate and Weath
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oundary method as a means to impose
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assumed full responsibility for the
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I. Annual Progress Report The previ
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Kazi Ito NCSU Mathematics Ralph Smi
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2007-08 Sensor Networks Transition
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Environmental Sensor Networks Progr
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Yang Yu Zhang Zhong Zhu Jun Bin Yi
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Mattingly McKinley Minion Mitran Ng
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Cheng Choi Clark Cooley Das Das Del
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Ren Resnick Rios Cuirong Sidney Jes
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Rosenblum Rotnitzky Scharfstein Sun
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B. Postdoctoral Fellows This sectio
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Administrative Mentor: Michael Mini
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We consider modeling multiple risk
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1. Statistics Department Seminar, C
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Presentations: Change of Spatiotemp
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Presentations: “Some Thoughts on
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Theory for multiple change-point se
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2. Discovering Game Theoretic Conce
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“Work on numerical large deviatio
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contributing team member, as often
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accuracy of the solutions. Some pre
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Continuing Collaborations: Helen Zh
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7 th World Congress in Probability
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N/A 9. Other Research while at SAMS
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Risk analysis (multivariate extreme
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Jesus Rios Plans for 2008-10 I will
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Communication: --a consistent, time
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C. Graduate Student Participation 1
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Elijah Gaioni (University of Connec
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Xiaoyan’s thesis work is on devel
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Jason Wilson (Duke) is involved in
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Ilka A. Reis (National Institute fo
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4. Challenges in Dynamic Treatment
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4.5 Program Activities The program
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which held morning and afternoon se
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• B. Carlin (Biostatistics, Unive
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Also following from the program, se
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4.11 Summary of Exciting Research a
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interested students and faculty, an
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6. Education and Outreach Program T
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Cherokee Investment Partners, Const
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G. Publications and Technical Repor
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• Ma, C. “Construction of Non-G
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• Bayarri, M.J., J. Berger, F. Li
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• Vernieres, G., Gremaud, P., Olu
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• Krishnapur, M., Zeitouni, O., R
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• Hou, S., K. Huang, K. Solna, an
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• Das, S., “Analyzing Fatal Dri
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H. Diversity Efforts SAMSI puts con
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(University of Utah) and Natallia K
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2007-08 Random Media Opening Worksh
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2. Affiliate Involvement 2.1 Backgr
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J. Advisory Committees Committee Na
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Institute directors agree to inform
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analysis of DNA and protein sequenc
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University), Jeremy Gunawarden (Har
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Many problems and existing simulati
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Carolina), Gareth Peters (New South
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actually replace individual analyse
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effect parameter of interest prior
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with structures that are not tempor
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about confidence in results. Furthe
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2. Stochastic Dynamics 2.1 Overview
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Michael Reed (Mathematics, Duke), G
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These two approaches, through the u
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• Li Lexin (North Carolina State
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At NCAR, Boulder, Colorado and orga
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SAMSI working groups. Participation
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certain distances, be used to captu
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subject to the l 1 constraint. Zou
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3. Breiman, L. (1996): Heuristics o
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enabled high virtual attendance by
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(b) Estimation of large random matr
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We have already discussed problems
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Appendix C. Workshop Participant Li
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Sanso Bruno Male University of Cali
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Compmod New Methods and Case Studie
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El Karoui Nourredine Male UC Berkel
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Education and Outreach Program SAMS
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Sutton Karyn Female NCSU Mathematic
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Lin Rongheng Male U Mass Biostatist
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Geometry and Statistics of Shape Sp
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Heo Giseon Female Hirani Anil Male
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Pennec Xavier Male Pike Brian Male
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Yasamin Saeid Male Yezzi Anthony Ma
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Daum Keith Male Idaho National Labo
Page 199 and 200: Langstaff John Male Laurey Terri Fe
Page 201 and 202: Sedransk Nell Female NISS Statistic
Page 203 and 204: Risk PPP Workshop Workshop Particip
Page 205 and 206: Rezaei Mahmoud Male Clemson Mathema
Page 207 and 208: Lysenko Natalia Female ETH Zurich S
Page 209 and 210: Biondini Gino Male State U New York
Page 211 and 212: Khatri Shilpa Female Courant Instit
Page 213 and 214: Spiller Elaine Female SAMSI Mathema
Page 215 and 216: Interface Workshop Workshop Partici
Page 217 and 218: Cheney Margaret Female Rensselaer P
Page 219 and 220: Agarwal Ankit Male U Kansas Enginee
Page 221 and 222: Lahiri Soumendra Male Texas A & M U
Page 223 and 224: Last Name SAMSI/CRSC Industrial Mat
Page 225 and 226: Reale- Levis Jim Male NCSU Engineer
Page 227 and 228: Gray William Male U. North Carolina
Page 229 and 230: Serban Nicoleta Female Georgia Inst
Page 231 and 232: Brotherson Temitope Female NJ Scien
Page 233 and 234: Frink Kaiem Male Elizabeth City Sta
Page 235 and 236: Jones Dana Female Bennett College f
Page 237 and 238: Munoz Breda Female RTI Internationa
Page 239 and 240: Smith Ralph Male NCSU Mathematics F
Page 241 and 242: Undergraduate Two-Day Workshop Part
Page 243 and 244: Schmidt Courtney Female Georgetown
Page 245 and 246: Schaeffer Amanda Female U Arizona M
Page 247 and 248: Presentation Chris Snyder, NCAR/MMM
Page 249: Chair of Afternoon Session Tom Sant
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Page 255 and 256: model. The output is functional dat
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Page 267 and 268: 10:00-10:30 Break Characterizing th
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Page 271 and 272: 9:00 Presentations and Discussion
Page 273 and 274: 11:25-11:55 From Population to Indi
Page 275 and 276: 4:00 - 5:30 Shapes in Medical Imagi
Page 277 and 278: 4:15 - 4:45 Discussion Panel Wednes
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Page 287 and 288: 2:45 - 3:15 Break N. D. Shyamal Kum
Page 289 and 290: 2:15 - 4:00 Working Group Formation
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Page 293 and 294: Howard Kunreuther University of Pen
Page 295 and 296: series. We propose a specific class
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of the solution. Here we reveal a s
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of the grand challenges of science.
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numerical approach. Several example
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Biofilms are complicated, living co
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Knut Solna University of California
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This poster presents an analysis of
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X. Program on Risk Analysis, Extrem
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SPEAKER ABSTRACTS Chair: David Bank
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Thoughts on the Use of Decision Ana
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Bias Correction in Pharmaceutical R
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In the talk we will discuss some mo
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Stephen Sain, National Center for A
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Concha Gomez, University of Wiscons
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Iris Mack, Phat Math, Inc. and Flor
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8:15 - 8:45 Continental Breakfast a
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coordinate grids on the surface. To
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University of California, Irvine De
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overall a good agreement between im
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9:00-9:05 Alan Karr, National Insti
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3:30 - 4:00 Coffee Break Soumen Lah
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“Experiences in Developing an Eco
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Jennifer Hoeting Colorado State Uni
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kogle@uwyo.edu “Data-Model Integr
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“Compression and Analysis of Gold
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"A Cost-Efficient Approach to Wirel
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The main goal of a data collection
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Wednesday, January 23, 2008 Radisso
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“Robust Prediction Error Criterio
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one of the main sources of uncertai
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other. A core problem is how to inf
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"The Asymptotic Structure of Nearly
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SAMSI madar@post.tau.ac. “Bayesia
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11:30 - 12:00 Discussion Session 12
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garnier@math.jussieu.fr “Wave Pro
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has lagged. While it is quite clear
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Appendix E - Workshop Evaluations E
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E.2 Evaluation of Scientific Conten
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E.3 Evaluation of Staff Percent of
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E.5 Evaluation of Lodging Evaluatio
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