Fly-tipping: Causes, Incentives and Solutions - Keep Britain Tidy

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Fly-tipping: Causes, Incentives and Solutions Figure 3.2: Number of fly-tips reported by local authority area per month Figure 3.2 shows pockets of quite high concentration of fly-tipping, and these seem generally to be areas of high population density. Fly-tipping seems particularly focused around urban areas in London, the North West of England and the North East. Calculating a rate per head of population controls for the possibility that these areas have more fly-tipping simply because more people live there. If population density were the main driver for the distribution shown in Figure 3.2, the rate per head of population should be similar across all local authorities. Figure 3.3 shows both the number and rate for each local authority. 27
Fly-tipping: Causes, Incentives and Solutions Figure 3.3: Number of fly-tips and rate per month per 1,000 population by local authority 7000 30 6000 5000 4000 3000 No. of incidents Incidents per population 25 20 15 2000 10 1000 5 0 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281 291 301 0 There are a number of interesting points from Figure 3.3: 1. The rate is not flat, which means that factors other than simply population density drive the problem. Statistical analysis does show that part of the variance in rate is correlated with density of population (this is discussed in more depth below), but Figure 3.3 suggests that the problem increases exponentially, i.e. it increases much more than would be expected by population density alone. Two possibilities could explain this: a. further statistical analysis shows that the variance is also strongly correlated with Indices of Multiple Deprivation. Issues such as overcrowding and poverty emerge as relevant and plausible drivers of the problem b. the exponential rate of increase would be consistent with the ‘broken windows’ theory described above, i.e. that fly-tipping in areas of multiple deprivation encourages more people to fly-tip 2. Some local authorities suffer massively more than others. Liverpool and Sheffield have been excluded from this analysis, as they report unusually high numbers – between three and six times as much as the next highest local authority. This looks like a recording issue. A number of local authorities, however, suffer very high numbers and rates of fly-tipping. 5% of local authorities account for 45% of all fly-tips. The top six report an 28
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Fly-tipping: Causes, Incentives and Solutions - Keep Britain Tidy

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