Fly-tipping: Causes, Incentives and Solutions - Keep Britain Tidy

Fly-tipping: Causes, Incentives and Solutions
Figure 3.3: Number of fly-tips and rate per month per 1,000 population by
local authority
7000
30
6000
5000
4000
3000
No. of incidents
Incidents per population
25
20
15
2000
10
1000
5
0
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281 291 301
0
There are a number of interesting points from Figure 3.3:
1. The rate is not flat, which means that factors other than simply population
density drive the problem. Statistical analysis does show that part of the
variance in rate is correlated with density of population (this is discussed in
more depth below), but Figure 3.3 suggests that the problem increases
exponentially, i.e. it increases much more than would be expected by
population density alone. Two possibilities could explain this:
a. further statistical analysis shows that the variance is also strongly
correlated with Indices of Multiple Deprivation. Issues such as overcrowding
and poverty emerge as relevant and plausible drivers of the
problem
b. the exponential rate of increase would be consistent with the ‘broken
windows’ theory described above, i.e. that fly-tipping in areas of
multiple deprivation encourages more people to fly-tip
2. Some local authorities suffer massively more than others. Liverpool and
Sheffield have been excluded from this analysis, as they report unusually
high numbers – between three and six times as much as the next highest
local authority. This looks like a recording issue. A number of local
authorities, however, suffer very high numbers and rates of fly-tipping. 5%
of local authorities account for 45% of all fly-tips. The top six report an
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