MENA Asset Management Survey 2012 - National Bank of Abu Dhabi

Bahrain
to register a deficit of 4.6% of GDP in 2012 due to a jump in expenditures. Deficit finance
has meant bond issuance. Gross public debt rose to US$ 9.4 billion (+23.6% y-o-y and
32.6% of GDP in 2011, up from 12.2% in 2006). 61.4% was domestic debt.
Growth picks up driven by government stimulus
In 2011, real GDP (base 2001) growth was estimated at up from 2.2%. Nominal GDP
was estimated at US$ 29 billion. Expansion of government sector was the primary driver
of output growth, along with the hydrocarbon and manufacturing components of
economic activity. Real estate and business services sector contracted. Expansionary
fiscal policy has boosted activity. In 2012, real GDP growth is estimated at 3.8% y-oy
2 , Nominal GDP is estimated to have risen to US$ 31 billion.
Real GDP growth is forecast to pick up further to 4.5% in 2013 driven by
infrastructure expenditures, with nominal GDP projected to rise to US$ 32.4 billion.
Industry Overview
At the end of October 2012, in Bahrain, there were 23 conventional retail banks
(domestic and fully licensed branches of foreign banks), 55 conventional wholesale
banks, 6 Islamic retail banks, 20 Islamic wholesale banks, 13 bank representative
offices, 49 entities with an investment business firm licence (including service providers),
9 investment firm representative offices, and 152 insurance firms.
There were 2,811 funds marketed in Bahrain in October 2012 according to data from
the Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB). Total fund assets were US$ 8.24 billion. There
were 122 locally incorporated funds. Total assets of locally incorporated funds
amounted to US$ 5.09 billion. There were 62 companies sponsoring locally
incorporated funds, of which 23 were based in Bahrain.
2
Bahrain Economic Development Board’s quarterly bulletin for 2012Q2 forecast 2012
real GDP growth at 3.7% based on data series with 2001 as the base year. However,
2012 real GDP growth based on revised series with 2010 as the base year was forecast
at 2.4% (1.9% in 2011). Note that nominal GDP for 2011 was revised up by 12.2%.
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