MENA Asset Management Survey 2012 - National Bank of Abu Dhabi

Middle East & North Africa
Regional Economic Developments 1
Case in Contrast: Oil Exporters versus Importers
Key policy issues for oil importers are restoration of political stability, implementation of
austerity measures and reforms, while the oil exporters are in a strong position to pursue
policy agendas of job creation and economic diversification. The two groups are
connected through investment links, transfers including remittance flows, and service
related expenditures and complement each other.
MENA real GDP growth rate is forecast to have accelerated in 2012 to 5.3% yearon-year,
up from 3.3% in 2011, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Oil
exporters were the main engines of output growth in 2012, with real GDP growth
estimated at 6.6% y-o-y (up from 3.9% in 2011). MENA oil importers – where domestic
unrest was more prevalent - have grappled with sub-par growth in 2012 and 2011 of
1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. MENA nominal GDP is estimated at US$ 2.95 trillion in
2012 (7.2% year-on-year).
The region continued to register significant current account surpluses driven by
oil exporters – estimated at US$ 361 billion in 2012 (12.2% of GDP) . This is down
from US$ 392 billion in 2011 (14.2% of GDP), but almost double the 2010 level. Oil
importers in the region are forecast to register a current account deficit of US$ 36 billion
(6.9% of GDP). Aggregate external surpluses means that the region remains a
capital exporter. Central Bank international reserves are estimated to have reached
US$ 1.38 trillion in 2012 2 . MENA economies are forecast to register a budget surplus of
2.5% of GDP in 2012 driven by oil exporters which are expected to post a surplus to the
tune of 6.1% of GDP. MENA oil importers are expected to post a deficit of 8.7% of GDP,
the highest in more than a decade.
1
MENA constituents in the section on economic developments do not include Turkey in
line with IMF classification. Data tables and various charts on the asset management
industry include Turkey reflecting investment objectives of a number of funds.
2
Excludes sovereign wealth funds.
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