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– or defensively, when operators are threatened by competitive
FTTH deployments or by cable’s DOCSIS 3.0.
Regulatory, deployment and marketing issues still threaten
to slow down or compromise next-generation access wireline
deployments. Regulators in many countries are hesitating between
encouraging FTTx deployments by incumbents (thus
Pyramid Research: Progression of
Fiber Upgrades Is Now Unstoppable
Despite the difficult financial climate,
the progression of fiber
upgrades is now inevitable, according
to a new report from Pyramid
Research (www.pyr.com), the telecom
research arm of the Light Reading
Communications Network (www.lightreading.com).
As many as 98 million
homes, or 6 percent of all households
worldwide, are now passed by FTTB/
FTTH networks globally, and another
74 million homes by VDSL2 networks.
Seventy percent of the homes passed by
A
new report by Dell’Oro Group (www.delloro.com)
finds that PON revenue, including both optical line
terminals (OLTs) and optical networking terminals
(ONTs), reached its second consecutive record high in 3Q08,
growing 16 percent quarter-to-quarter and 64 percent over the
year-ago period.
“Third quarter’s strength came from both EPON and
GPON,” says Tam Dell’Oro, president of Dell’Oro Group.
“EPON’s growth was driven by next-generation network upgrades
by NTT, Japan’s largest service provider. GPON, driven
by deployments for Verizon’s FiOS service as well as increasing
numbers of smaller deployments around the world, had even
stronger growth with revenue increasing more than five times
that of the year-ago period. Despite the weakening economy,
we are still forecasting annual GPON revenue to grow more
than over 50 percent in 2009.”
The report also shows Mitsubishi remained the leader in
the overall PON market, benefiting by being the primary
EPON supplier to NTT. Alcatel-Lucent, the primary supplier
of GPON to Verizon, retained its number two status in the
overall PON market and number one for GPON.
A similar report from market research firm Infonetics Research
(www.infonetics.com) puts the growth of the worldwide
PON OLT and ONT equipment market in 3Q08 at 25 percent.
Total equipment sales of $568 million reflected the strong
risking monopoly) and promoting competition (thus risking
deterring investment). Deployment may be slowed by the difficulty
of trenching, by the need to gain MDU owners’ agreement
in order to deploy to tenants, and by the lack of skilled
labor. Marketing challenges include the lack of services unique
to FTTH and the need for local sales forces. BBP
Defying Economic Slowdown,
PON Revenue Reaches Record High
fiber are located in Asia-Pacific, where
NTT in Japan was among the first to
pioneer large-scale FTTH upgrades in
2000. Europe and North America each
account for 15 percent of the homes
passed, and both have plenty of catching
up to do in the next five years.
“We found that telcos’ need for fiber
to the home remains strong, especially
in developed markets, where deployments
are driven by the maturity of the
broadband markets and a proliferation of
IP-based video, TV and interactive applications,”
notes Ozgur Aytar, Senior Research
Manager at Pyramid Research and
co-author of the report. The report also
found that with mobile operators now
offering broadband at speeds and prices
equivalent to entry-level ADSL subscriptions,
telcos have little time to procrastinate.
“After losing the voice game to
mobile players in the early 2000s, fixedline
operators can hardly allow the same
to happen with the broadband business,
which has kept them afloat when voice
revenue tanked,” adds Aytar. BBP
growth of GPON network buildouts in North America and
EMEA, the continued growth of EPON subscribers in Japan
and Korea, and the phenomenal growth of EPON infrastructure
in China to support FTTB deployments, says Infonetics.
The Infonetics report shows the overall PON market on
track to finish 2008 up 46 percent over the previous year and
to continue strong double-digit annual growth through 2011
as the shift from copper- to fiber-based broadband access drives
growth in this market around the world.
January/February 2009 | www.broadbandproperties.com | BROADBAND PROPERTIES | 11