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1996 - European Telework Week

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<strong>Telework</strong> 96<br />

in many labour-intensive activities. Europe should expect these activities to migrate<br />

to other countries more rapidly in an advanced communications environment.<br />

• The transition from a traditional communications environment to an advanced<br />

communications environment will reinforce the already strong historical correlation<br />

between macro-economic performance and communications provision. The<br />

economies of those countries and regions with widely available and affordable<br />

advanced communications services are expected to perform better than those where<br />

advanced communications take-up is more restricted.<br />

The study examines the potential impacts of advanced communications on a sectoral<br />

basis, describing the potential positive and negative effects on <strong>European</strong> competitiveness,<br />

value-added, employment and trade for nine sectors. The study does not attempt to<br />

extrapolate the quantified relationships between communications and the economy into<br />

an advanced communications environment. We believe that the fundamental dynamics of<br />

advanced communications, and their economic impacts, will be significantly different to<br />

the effects that have been observed to date. Two scenarios are described for the transition<br />

to advanced communications, and these are used throughout as the basis for investigating<br />

the sensitivity of each sectoral effect.<br />

‘Rapid<br />

Scenario<br />

Progress’<br />

‘Slow<br />

Scenario<br />

Progress’<br />

Rate of restructuring for ‘mature’ EU<br />

industries<br />

Improvements in EU competitiveness<br />

Growth in EU external exports<br />

Growth in EU external imports<br />

Growth in EU internal trade<br />

Growth in SME share of EU output<br />

Job creation in the EU<br />

Job destruction in the EU<br />

Growth in EU unemployment<br />

EXHIBIT: Summary of Advanced Communications Impacts on Key Areas of the EU Economy<br />

Note: A solid black circle indicates rapid growth, an empty circle indicates no change.<br />

Macro-economic conclusions are drawn from a synthesis of these sectoral assessments,<br />

and are presented in a quantified picture of the <strong>European</strong> macro-economy in the next<br />

decade.<br />

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