Global Economic Outlook and Strategy - Kadin Indonesia

February 28, 2008
Global Economic Outlook and Strategy
Key Economic Indicators
Figure 11. Euro Area, Japan, and the United States — Business Activity Survey Measures, 1987-Feb 2008
3.0
Standard Deviations from Mean d
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
Standard Deviations from Mean
U.S. ISM Euro Area Japan Tankan
Note: The figure shows business activity survey indexes in the euro area, Japan and the United States, measured in units of standard deviations from the ten-year mean.
Sources: Bank of Japan, EU Commission and the U.S. Institute for Supply Management.
Figure 12. Commodity Prices, 1987-Feb 2008
$ per Barrel
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Economist Index (Left)
Oil Prices (Right)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Figure 13. Selected Countries — Global Industrial Production
(Year-to-Year Percent Change), 2007-09F
2007 2008F 20009F
World 4.2% 3.5% 3.9%
United States 2.1 1.7 2.5
Japan 2.9 2.3 2.5
Euro Area 2.5 1.9 1.6
United Kingdom 0.3 0.8 0.8
Canada -0.1 -3.0 1.0
China 18.5 16.8 16.5
India 9.0 8.5 10.0
Korea 8.2 7.7 8.0
Brazil 3.0 4.8 4.2
Note: “World” includes 22 countries based on industrial production weights.
Sources: National sources and Citi.
Note: Brent crude. Sources: The Economist and OECD.
Figure 14. Euro Area, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States — Forecasts for 2008 GDP (Left) and 2008 Inflation (Right), 2006-Feb 2008.
4.0% 4.0%
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.5
Jan-06 Apr Jul Oct Jan-07 Apr Jul Oct Jan-08
U.S. Euro U.K. Japan
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
4.0%
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Jan-06 Apr Jul Oct Jan-07 Apr Jul Oct Jan-08
U.S. Euro U.K. Japan
4.0%
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Source: Citi.
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