Global Economic Outlook and Strategy - Kadin Indonesia

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February 28, 2008 Global Economic Outlook and Strategy Figure 15. Short Rates (End of Period), as of Feb 28, 2008 Current 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 United States 3.00 % 2.50 % 2.00 % 2.00 % 2.00 % 2.00 % Japan 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 Euro Area 4.00 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.50 Canada 4.00 % 3.50 % 3.00 % 3.00 % 3.00 % 3.00 % Australia 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 New Zealand 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 Denmark 4.25 % 4.25 % 4.00 % 3.75 % 3.75 % 3.75 % Norway 5.25 5.25 5.50 5.50 5.75 5.75 Sweden 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.00 3.75 Switzerland 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 United Kingdom 5.25 5.25 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.25 China 7.47 % 7.74 % 7.74 % 7.74 % 7.74 % 7.74 % Source: Citi. Figure 16. 10-Year Yield Forecasts (Period Average), as of Feb 28, 2008 Current 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 United States 3.71 % 3.65 % 3.60 % 3.75 % 3.85 % 4.00 % Japan 1.43 1.50 1.70 1.70 1.80 1.80 Euro Area 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.10 4.25 Canada 3.73 % 3.90 % 3.90 % 4.00 % 4.05 % 4.15 % Australia 6.44 6.50 6.50 6.35 6.35 6.25 New Zealand 6.40 6.50 6.50 6.25 6.25 6.05 Denmark 4.11 % 4.10 % 4.05 % 4.05 % 4.15 % 4.30 % Norway 4.40 4.63 4.76 4.90 5.08 5.23 Sweden 4.09 4.10 4.14 4.25 4.50 4.59 Switzerland 3.00 2.80 2.90 2.95 3.15 3.35 United Kingdom 4.60 4.55 4.55 4.55 4.65 4.79 Notes: Bond yields measured on local market basis (semi-annual for the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; annual for the rest). The 10-year yield for the euro area is the Bund yield. Source: Citi. Figure 17. 10-Year Yield Spreads (Period Average), as of Feb 28, 2008 Spread vs. US$ Spread vs. Germany Current 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 Current 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 United States NA NA NA NA NA NA -20 bp -21 bp -21 bp -11 bp -21 bp -21 bp Japan -241 bp -229 bp -209 bp -219 bp -209 bp -224 bp -261 -250 -230 -230 -230 -245 Euro Area 20 21 21 11 21 21 NA NA NA NA NA NA Canada -13bp 15bp 15bp 15bp 20bp 15bp -23bp -6bp -6bp 4bp -1bp -6bp Australia 259 275 275 250 250 225 245 261 261 245 235 210 New Zealand 263 275 275 240 240 205 249 261 261 235 225 189 France 32 bp 33 bp 31 bp 20 bp 29 bp 29 bp 12 bp 12 bp 10 bp 9 bp 8 bp 8 bp Italy 61 61 59 46 56 54 41 40 38 35 35 33 Spain 34 36 35 25 33 31 14 15 14 14 12 10 Netherlands 29 30 29 18 27 27 9 9 8 7 6 6 Belgium 47 46 39 27 36 34 27 25 18 16 15 13 Denmark 31 bp 31 bp 26 bp 16 bp 26 bp 26 bp 11 bp 10 bp 5 bp 5 bp 5 bp 5 bp Norway 55 84 97 101 119 119 56 63 76 90 98 98 Sweden 24 31 35 36 61 55 10 10 14 25 40 34 Switzerland -84 -99 -89 -94 -74 -69 -104 -120 -110 -105 -95 -90 United Kingdom 85 80 80 70 80 79 65 60 60 60 60 60 NA Not applicable. Note: Spreads calculated on annual basis (except those of the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand over the United States). Source: Citi. 12
February 28, 2008 Global Economic Outlook and Strategy Figure 18. Foreign Exchange Forecasts (End of Period), as of Feb 28, 2008 vs USD vs EUR Current Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Current Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 United States NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.51 1.51 1.53 1.51 1.48 1.45 Japan 106 105 105 109 112 112 160 159 161 165 166 162 Euro Area 1.51 1.51 1.53 1.51 1.48 1.45 NA NA NA NA NA NA Canada 0.98 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.48 1.53 1.56 1.56 1.54 1.51 Australia 0.94 0.92 0.95 0.92 0.90 0.88 1.60 1.64 1.61 1.64 1.64 1.65 New Zealand 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.75 0.73 1.86 1.89 1.96 1.99 1.97 1.99 Norway 5.20 5.07 4.84 4.83 4.90 4.97 7.87 7.65 7.40 7.30 7.25 7.20 Sweden 6.20 6.16 5.95 6.03 6.22 6.41 9.37 9.30 9.10 9.10 9.20 9.30 Switzerland 1.06 1.06 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.60 1.60 1.59 1.56 1.52 1.50 United Kingdom 1.98 1.97 1.96 1.95 1.92 1.93 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.77 0.77 0.75 China 7.11 7.06 7.00 6.90 6.75 6.55 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.0 9.5 India 39.9 39.0 38.5 38.0 37.5 37.0 60.3 58.9 58.9 57.4 55.5 53.7 Korea 938 960 960 940 920 870 1418 1450 1469 1419 1362 1262 Poland 2.33 2.34 2.42 2.44 2.42 2.43 3.52 3.53 3.70 3.68 3.58 3.52 Russia 24.1 24.2 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.6 36.4 36.5 36.6 36.3 36.0 35.7 South Africa 7.56 7.70 7.90 8.10 8.00 8.10 11.43 11.63 12.09 12.23 11.84 11.75 Turkey 1.18 1.22 1.24 1.27 1.29 1.32 1.79 1.84 1.90 1.92 1.91 1.91 Brazil 1.67 1.79 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.85 2.52 2.70 2.75 2.72 2.66 2.68 Mexico 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 16.2 16.3 16.7 16.6 16.2 16.0 Source: Citi. Figure 19. Foreign Exchange Forecasts (End of Period), as of Feb 28, 2008 vs JPY Current Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 United States 106 105 105 109 112 112 Japan NA NA NA NA NA NA Euro Area 160 159 161 165 166 162 Canada 108 104 103 106 108 108 Australia 100 97 100 100 101 99 New Zealand 86.1 84.0 81.9 82.8 84.0 81.8 Norway 20.4 20.7 21.7 22.5 22.9 22.6 Sweden 17.1 17.0 17.7 18.1 18.0 17.5 Switzerland 100 99 101 105 109 108 United Kingdom 211 207 206 213 215 216 China 15 15 15 15 17 17 India 2.66 2.69 2.73 2.87 2.99 3.03 Korea 8.84 9.14 9.14 8.62 8.21 7.77 Poland 45.6 44.9 43.4 44.7 46.3 46.1 Russia 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.5 South Africa 14.0 13.6 13.3 13.5 14.0 13.8 Turkey 89.6 86.1 84.7 85.8 86.8 84.8 Brazil 63.6 58.7 58.3 60.6 62.2 60.5 Mexico 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.2 Source: Citi. 13
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