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FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES SEMI ANNUAL REPORT OCTOBER 2006 MONTENEGRO STOCK EXCHANGE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS Politic and Economic Environment Montenegro emerged as a sovereign state after just over the required 55% of the population opted for independence in a May 2006 referendum. The vote heralded the end of the former Union of Serbia and Montenegro which had existed since 2003 and which was itself the rump of the former Yugoslavia. The EU-brokered deal forming it was intended to stabilize the region by settling Montenegrin demands for independence from Serbia and preventing further changes to Balkan borders. The same deal also contained the seeds of the union's dissolution. It stipulated that after three years the two republics could hold referendums on whether to keep or scrap it. Montenegro opted for the latter. Montenegro last experienced independence nearly 90 years earlier. It was absorbed into the newly-formed Yugoslavia at the end of World War I. There were fears that the 2006 independence vote could lead to unrest in the areas of Montenegro where ethnic Serbs, who make up roughly a third of the population, form the majority and strongly oppose separation from Serbia. There was backing for independence from most ethnic Montenegrins and ethnic Albanians living in Montenegro. The pro-independence camp led by Prime Minister Djukanovic argued that the association with Serbia was holding the republic back, not least with its bid for EU membership. Montenegro will now seek negotiations on a stability and association agreement with the EU in its own right. As the successor state to the union, Serbia inherited its seat at the UN and other international organizations. The newlyindependent Montenegro has since been admitted to the UN in its own right Montenegro, which means "Black Mountain", borders Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Serbia's breakaway province of Kosovo and Albania. About half of it is covered in thick forest. The tiny republic encompasses an Adriatic coastline, lowlands and high mountain ranges. The Tara River canyon is the deepest and longest in Europe. Filip Vujanovic, a pro-independence candidate and an ally of the prime minister, has been president since May 2003. Milo Djukanovic, the spearhead of Montenegrin independence, is to step down, just a month after winning the September 2006 general elections. President Vujanovic says the prime minister is leaving for personal reasons. Mr. Djukanovic said his election victory proved that Montenegro was firmly on the European track. One of the major tasks for parliament will be to draft a constitution. Milo Djukanovic is the only Balkan leader to have remained in office - as prime minister or president - since the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia in 1991. At the time of his first premiership he was an ally of then Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic and favored the preservation of a federal Yugoslavia. Under his premiership Montenegrin forces within the Yugoslav army played an important role in the siege of Croatia's historic city of Dubrovnik. A rift with Mr Milosevic developed from the mid 1990s on. The split was underlined in 1997 when Mr. Djukanovic defeated the pro- Milosevic candidate in Montenegro's presidential election. He went on to win favor with the EU when he declared that Montenegro was not a party to the conflict over Kosovo when President Milosevic's actions there led to Nato air strikes. Parties allied with Mr Djukanovic won Montenegro's general elections in October 2002. At that point he gave up the presidency to resume the more hands-on role of coalition prime minister, a job he first carried out in 1991 at the age of 29. His pursuit of independence rang EU alarm bells over potential dangers for Balkan stability. Under EU pressure, he reluctantly agreed to the formation of the new, looser Union of Serbia and Montenegro in 2003 - but only after it was agreed that the crucial referendum on its future could be held three years later.* * BBC Country Profile. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/country_profiles/5033274.stm Key Information Contacts Securities Commission of Montenegro www.scmn.cg.yu Central Depositary Agency www.cda.cg.yu Central Bank of Montenegro www.cb-cg.org Ministry of Finance www.ministarstvo-finansija.cg.yu Montenegro Statistical Office www.monstat.cg.yu 2003-FOREIGN TRADE - IMPORT (%) 2003-FOREIGN TRADE - EXPORT (%) Europe Asia South America North and Central America Europe Other North and Central America 85.8 7.1 3.1 4.0 96.6 3.0 0.4 PAGE 112
FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES SEMI ANNUAL REPORT OCTOBER 2006 MONTENEGRO STOCK EXCHANGE MONTENEGRO ECONOMIC REVIEW 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 GDP, market prices (EUR milion) 1,022 1,225 1,302 1,375 1,475 1,580* GDP real growth (annual in %) - -0.2 1.7 2.5 2.7* 4.0* GDP per capita (EUR) 1,679 2,031 2,113 2,231* 2,378* 2,548* Inflation (CPI changes) 24.8 28.0 9.4 6.7 4.3 3.0* Industrial output (annual percentage changes) 3.7 -0.7 0.6 2.4 13.8 . Unemployement rate (% of the total labour force) 37 37 . 25.8 22.2 . Monetary reserves (EUR million) . . . . 53.5 . Montenegro's budget deficit (EUR million) . . . 438.8 502.7 . External debts as % of GDP . . . 32.0 34.0 . Balance of payements current account (EUR million) . . . -114 -118 . Montenegro's budget deficit (EUR million) . . 25.16 45.29 32.21 34.32* Share in GDP (in %) . . 2.01 3.29 2.18 2.17 Export of goods (USD million) 161.3 178.0 194.2 171.3 . . Import of goods (USD million) 354.5 529.4 681.6 601.7 . . Balane of trade (deficit-surplus, USD million) 193.2 351.4 487.4 430.4 . . * evaluation GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF THE ENTIRE ECONOMY 2000* 2001* 2002** 2002*** 2003 2,471,756 3,397,400 1,868,849 . . PRODUCTIVE BRANCHES OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES Total 2,465,347 3,349,382 1,832,425 . Agriculture 395,063 467,913 257,887 280,008 Fishery 1,420 2,237 948 - Stones and ores extraction 98,987 96,711 .68,189 59,467 Manufacturing industry 753,968 909,492 401,893 463,337 Electricity, gas and water supply 168,850 252,508 142,791 129,931 Construction industry 241,656 259,735 155,084 180,036 Retail and wholesale trade 259,933 578,581 347,133 294,299 Hotels and restaurants 111,093 142,236 88,310 84,530 Transport, warehousing and communications 382,390 574,323 331,446 265,567 Financial mediation - - - 42,676 Real estate operations 48,716 61,412 35,860 172,366 State administration and defence; Obligatory social insurance - - - 154,970 Education - - - 64,632 Health care and social welfare 1,921 2,612 1,307 76,621 Other utility, social and personal service activities 1,350 1,622 1,577 85,398 Gross value added - - - -2,700 Gross value added (basic prices) - - - 1,154,623 Taxes on products minus subsidies on products - - - 146,882 GDP (market prices) - - - 1,301,505 Source: Monstat *2000. - DM thousand **2002. - EUR thousand ***SNA concept PAGE 113
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