The Effect of Medical Advances on Insurance ... - Actuary.com
The Effect of Medical Advances on Insurance ... - Actuary.com
The Effect of Medical Advances on Insurance ... - Actuary.com
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Occurrence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Influenza Pandemics<br />
and Epidemics<br />
Disease incidence<br />
Pandemic<br />
Incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> clinically manifest influenza<br />
Mean level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> antibody vs A HxNx<br />
Mean level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> antibody vs A HyNy<br />
Epidemic<br />
Interpandemic period<br />
Epidemic<br />
Epidemic<br />
Epidemic<br />
Pandemic<br />
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12<br />
Time in years<br />
Epidemic<br />
Mean populati<strong>on</strong> antibody level<br />
Introducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
hypothetical<br />
A HxNx virus<br />
Significant minor variati<strong>on</strong> in A HxNx may<br />
occur at any <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> these points. Epidemics may<br />
or may not be associated with such variati<strong>on</strong>s<br />
Introducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> hypothetical<br />
A HyNy (major new<br />
subtype), variant A HxNx<br />
disappears<br />
Mandell, Douglas and Bennett’s Principles and Practice <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Infectious Diseases, 5 th ed. 2000:1829. Modified from<br />
Kilbourne ED. Influenza. 1987:274, with permissi<strong>on</strong>.
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