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The Effect of Medical Advances on Insurance ... - Actuary.com

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Will <str<strong>on</strong>g>Effect</str<strong>on</strong>g>ive Human to Human<br />

Transmissi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> H5N1 Occur?<br />

Three scenarios possible:<br />

1. H5N1 remains in birds, other animals<br />

- fades in importance<br />

2. Jumps directly from birds to humans<br />

– Postulated to have occurred in 1918<br />

3. Combines with other influenza virus and then to<br />

humans<br />

– occurred in 1957 (Asian) and 1968 (H<strong>on</strong>g K<strong>on</strong>g)<br />

– Usually less virulent (partial immunity, etc.)

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