The Effect of Medical Advances on Insurance ... - Actuary.com

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WHO stages <strong>of</strong> pandemic alert Interpandemic phase New virus in animals, no cases in humans Pandemic alert New virus causes human cases Pandemic Low risk <strong>of</strong> human cases 1 Higher risk <strong>of</strong> human cases 2 No or very limited human-to to- human transmission Evidence <strong>of</strong> human-to to-human transmission Evidence <strong>of</strong> significant human-to to- human transmission Efficient and sustained human-to to- human transmission 3 4 5 6
Pandemic Business Scenarios Stage Business Continuity Issues Human Infection Economic <strong>Effect</strong> 3a • Public & employee “awareness” – current situation • No person-to-person transmission • No measurable impact 3b 4-5 • Potentially distracting level <strong>of</strong> anxiety among public and employees • Overseas travel restrictions imposed by government • 24 hour media coverage, elevated concerns for personal/family safety • Increase in employee absenteeism • No person-to-person transmission • Person-to-person transmission has occurred overseas • No measurable impact • Overseas supply chains interrupted • Some decline in equity markets 6a • Regional travel restrictions within U.S. imposed by government • Regional school & gov <strong>of</strong>fice closures • Personal/family safety primary concern • Sharp increase in employee absenteeism • Excess mortality rate based on 1957 & 1968 pandemic “moderate” • Significant but short-lived shock to equity markets • Short-lived world recession 6b • Widespread travel restrictions within U.S. and around the world • School & gov <strong>of</strong>fice closures • Work becomes a low priority to most • Employee absenteeism is the norm • Excess mortality rate based on 1918 pandemic “severe” • Significant and lasting shock to equity markets • World recession for extended period
Page 1 and 2: Medical Developmen
Page 3 and 4: Infectious Diseases Tuberculosis He
Page 5 and 6: TB Death Rate • 7% industrialized
Page 7 and 8: MDR-TB • Multi-drug resistant for
Page 9 and 10: TB Remains a Treatable Disease •
Page 11 and 12: TB:Bottom Line • Serious illness
Page 13 and 14: Hepatitis A (HAV) • Spread by fec
Page 15 and 16: Chronic HBV in U.S. • 60,000 new
Page 17 and 18: HBV Control Challenge in U.S. • C
Page 19 and 20: Bottom Line - Chronic HBV • US re
Page 21 and 22: Impact of HCV •
Page 23 and 24: Stopping HCV Progression • Rate <
Page 25 and 26: Bottom Line: HCV • Chronic HCV an
Page 27 and 28: Business Continuity Planning 2007
Page 29 and 30: Occurrence of Infl
Page 31: Major Determinants of</stro
Page 34 and 35: US Dept HHS Projections Moderate (1
Page 38 and 39: Pandemic Planning • Pandemics- no
Page 40 and 41: Genetic Testing • Hot topic in DC
Page 42 and 43: Medicine of the Pa
Page 44: Landmarks in Genetics History • 1
Page 47 and 48: Mutations: Basis for Disease • A
Page 49 and 50: Causes of Mutation
Page 51 and 52: Beneficial Mutation
Page 53 and 54: Gene Studies • Detects mutations
Page 55 and 56: Single Gene Disorders • Follows M
Page 57 and 58: Familial Aggregation
Page 59 and 60: Recent Testing Advances</st
Page 61 and 62: Challenge: Should Private Insurers
Page 63: Stem Cells • Existing 20 stem cel
Page 66 and 67: Childhood Cancer Survivors • Surv
Page 68 and 69: Second Malignancies After Treatment
Page 70 and 71: Summary • TB a global issue; MDR
Page 72 and 73: Key Resources www.pandemicflu.gov w
Page 74: Additional Pandemic Resources • S

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