Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts
Japan
UK
Sweden
Core CPI SA
Core CPI NSA
Headline CPI RPI
CPI CPIF
Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y
2009 100.3 - -1.3 100.3 - -1.3 110.8 - 2.1 213.7 - -0.5 299.7 - -0.3 191.2 - 1.9
2010 (1) 99.3 - -1.0 99.3 - -1.0 114.5 - 3.3 223.6 - 4.6 303.5 - 1.3 195.2 - 2.1
2011 (1) 98.6 - -0.7 98.6 - -0.7 118.6 - 3.6 233.6 - 4.5 310.0 - 2.2 199.0 - 1.9
Q1 2010 99.7 - -1.3 99.3 - -1.2 112.9 - 3.2 219.3 - 4.0 301.2 - 1.0 194.0 - 2.6
Q2 2010 99.3 - -1.2 99.3 - -1.2 114.4 - 3.4 223.5 - 5.1 302.8 - 1.1 194.9 - 2.1
Q3 2010 98.8 - -1.1 99.1 - -1.0 114.7 - 3.1 224.5 - 4.7 302.9 - 1.1 194.8 - 1.7
Q4 2010 (1) 99.2 - -0.5 99.4 - -0.5 115.8 - 3.3 227.1 - 4.7 307.0 - 1.9 197.0 - 2.0
Q1 2011 (1) 98.8 - -0.9 98.4 - -0.9 117.3 - 3.9 230.1 - 4.9 307.2 - 2.0 196.8 - 1.5
Q2 2011 (1) 98.6 - -0.7 98.6 - -0.7 118.4 - 3.5 233.0 - 4.3 309.8 - 2.3 198.5 - 1.9
Q3 2011 (1) 98.5 - -0.3 98.7 - -0.3 118.8 - 3.6 234.0 - 4.2 309.9 - 2.3 199.2 - 2.2
Q4 2011 (1) 98.4 - -0.8 98.6 - -0.8 120.0 - 3.6 237.4 - 4.6 313.3 - 2.1 201.3 - 2.2
Jul 10 98.9 -0.3 -1.1 99.0 -0.3 -1.1 114.3 -0.3 3.1 223.6 -0.2 4.8 302.0 -0.3 1.1 194.3 -0.3 1.7
Aug 10 98.8 -0.1 -1.0 99.1 0.1 -1.0 114.9 0.5 3.1 224.5 0.4 4.7 302.1 0.0 0.9 194.3 0.0 1.4
Sep 10 98.7 -0.1 -1.1 99.1 0.0 -1.1 114.9 0.0 3.0 225.3 0.4 4.6 304.6 0.8 1.4 195.8 0.8 1.8
Oct 10 99.1 0.4 -0.6 99.5 0.4 -0.6 115.2 0.2 3.1 225.8 0.2 4.5 305.6 0.3 1.5 196.3 0.3 1.8
Nov 10 99.3 0.2 -0.5 99.4 -0.1 -0.5 115.6 0.4 3.2 226.8 0.4 4.7 306.6 0.3 1.8 196.8 0.2 1.9
Dec 10 (1) 99.2 -0.1 -0.5 99.3 -0.1 -0.5 116.6 0.9 3.6 228.6 0.8 4.9 308.7 0.7 2.3 197.9 0.6 2.3
Jan 11 (1) 99.0 -0.2 -0.6 98.6 -0.7 -0.6 116.8 0.1 3.9 229.0 0.2 5.1 305.9 -0.9 2.0 196.0 -1.0 1.5
Feb 11 (1) 98.8 -0.2 -1.0 98.2 -0.4 -1.0 117.4 0.5 4.0 230.2 0.5 5.0 307.4 0.5 1.9 196.8 0.4 1.3
Mar 11 (1) 98.7 -0.1 -1.1 98.4 0.2 -1.1 117.8 0.4 3.8 231.1 0.4 4.7 308.3 0.3 2.0 197.7 0.5 1.5
Apr 11 (1) 98.6 -0.1 -0.7 98.5 0.1 -0.7 118.3 0.4 3.6 232.7 0.7 4.5 309.5 0.4 2.4 198.3 0.3 1.8
May 11 (1) 98.7 0.1 -0.6 98.7 0.2 -0.6 118.5 0.2 3.6 233.1 0.2 4.3 309.9 0.1 2.3 198.6 0.2 1.8
Jun 11 (1) 98.5 -0.2 -0.7 98.6 -0.1 -0.7 118.5 0.0 3.4 233.3 0.1 4.1 309.8 0.0 2.3 198.8 0.1 1.9
Jul 11 (1) 98.5 0.0 -0.4 98.6 0.0 -0.4 118.3 -0.2 3.5 232.8 -0.2 4.1 308.9 -0.3 2.3 198.3 -0.2 2.1
Aug 11 (1) 98.4 -0.1 -0.4 98.7 0.1 -0.4 118.7 0.4 3.3 233.5 0.3 4.0 309.5 0.2 2.5 198.8 0.2 2.3
Sep 11 (1) 98.5 0.1 -0.2 98.9 0.2 -0.2 119.4 0.6 3.9 235.6 0.9 4.6 311.3 0.6 2.2 200.4 0.8 2.4
Oct 11 (1) 98.4 -0.1 -0.7 98.8 -0.1 -0.7 119.6 0.2 3.8 236.5 0.4 4.7 313.2 0.6 2.5 201.1 0.4 2.4
Nov 11 (1) 98.5 0.1 -0.8 98.6 -0.2 -0.8 119.8 0.1 3.6 237.0 0.2 4.5 313.5 0.1 2.2 201.2 0.1 2.3
Dec 11 (1) 98.4 -0.1 -0.8 98.5 -0.1 -0.8 120.5 0.6 3.3 238.9 0.8 4.5 313.1 -0.1 1.4 201.5 0.2 1.8
Updated
Next
Release
Jan 04
Dec CPI (Jan 27)
Jan 13
Dec CPI (Jan 18)
Jan 13
Jan CPI (Feb 17)
Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts
Chart 6: Japanese CPI (% y/y)
Chart 7: UK CPI (% y/y)
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
Prices are expected to continue falling but the pace of decline is
easing as the economy recovers.
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas
We expect inflation to remain above target for the remainder of the
year, although trending down. We think CPI is going to hit 4% or
above in the early months of this year.
Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan 13 January 2011
Market Mover
44
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