Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

Technical Analysis – Interest Rates & Commodities
Bond & Short-Term Contracts
• Europe 10y: Stalling below key 3.08/3.11 (LT 38.2% & MT 61.8%) with risk of ST wave “4” towards 2.70/75 area
• US 10y: Toppish around key 3.37 (MT 61.8%) and below LT falling resistance (3.64) with risk towards 3.10
• Short-term contracts m1: MT toppish bias on ED and Euribor with still risk of developing a falling ABC scenario
Equities & Commodities
• WTI (Cl1): Sill up MT within a MT rising channel but is still stalling around 91.86 wave “A” top, key to extend rise
• Equity markets: MT positive bias persists with new tops in US while European markets retest November tops
US 10y: Toppish around key 3.37 (MT 61.8%) with risk towards ST 38.2% MT Trend: Up Range: 3.25/3.45
MT SCENARIO remains up
Market remains up oriented MT within a MT
rising “C of ABC” scenario which is likely to
send it towards key 4.00/4.07 (April top & LT
61.8%) initially and then key 4.59 (LT falling
channel res). A break above 3.64 (4-years
falling resistance) is now needed to
strengthen this MT bearish scenario
2.80