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Impacts of Price Hikes on the Lives and Livelihoods of Poor People in Viet Nam This study applies the “household economy” model to analyze the combined impact of these three prices on the life and livelihoods of the poor. To clarify the impact of prices, the study divides the target households into four groups: • Surplus rice producers: in rural and suburban areas, often concentrated in places with favourable land and irrigation conditions. In principle this group should benefit from a rise in rice prices. However, production is affected by increased prices of inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, labour and agricultural services. In addition, the highly risky nature of agricultural activities also has a significant impact in the context of price hikes. • Deficit rice producers: in rural areas, often concentrated in mountain and EM communities without favourable land and irrigation conditions. In principle, given their deficit production, this group have to buy additional rice and thus will suffer from a rise in rice prices. However, they can earn extra income from other activities such as selling corn/cassava/cash crops or selling their own labour (including through migration). • Other commodities producers (for processing and export): in rural areas, often concentrated in places with favourable conditions (for production of corn, coffee and fisheries products). The prices of these products depend largely on the world market (of which Viet Nam is one of the major suppliers). This group may also produce rice (most belong to the rice deficit group). The relative prices of outputs/products to inputs/materials (fertilisers, fuel, seeds) will determine their productivity and reaction. • Net rice buyers: in urban areas or landless farmers and non-farm households. This group become worse-off when the price of rice (and other food and services) increases. How much they are affected depends on the extra income they can earn from non-farm activities. The wage level and job security will have an impact on the life and livelihoods of the urban poor and near-poor as prices increase. The above grouping simplifies the actual participation of the four groups in the market. Rice surplus households may sell much of their own paddy output in exchange for a different variety of rice. The rice deficit households may also sell their limited output of paddy immediately post-harvest in order to cover various expenditures and buy back rice before the next harvest. The difference between the paddy sale price and the rice purchase price (which is related to the market chain and roles of traders) will therefore largely affect the income level and life of farm households in the context of rising prices. All the four groups may exist in one site. This study focuses on the poor classified under one of the four groups. The impact of price rises and the response of households will vary by group, resulting in varying levels of effectiveness of support policies, programmes and projects. 1.3.2 Study Sites The sites of the study were selected within the poverty monitoring network supported by AAV and Oxfam. The following provinces/cities were selected as they are where the target groups are concentrated: • Hai Phong city and Go Vap district (HCMC): representative of urban areas with the “net rice buyers” group, • Dien Bien province: representative of rural areas with the “surplus rice producers” group, • Quang Tri province: representative of rural areas with the “deficit rice producers” group, • Dak Lak province: representative of rural areas with the “other commodities producers” (corn and coffee) group. In each province/city the study team focused on the same wards/communes that are included in the poverty monitoring network. • Hai Phong city: two urban wards and one suburban commune (1-2 units/villages in each ward/commune) 14
Introduction • Go Vap district (HCMC): two urban wards (1-2 units/villages in each ward/commune) • Dien Bien, Quang Tri and Dak Lak provinces: one commune in each province (two hamlets/villages in each commune). A brief description of the study sites is provided in Annex 1. 1.3.3 Study Tools This study uses the following tools: • Meetings and interviews with district and ward/commune representatives • Household questionnaires for three provinces of Dien Bien, Dak Lak and Quang Tri: random selection of 30 questionnaires/hamlet, two hamlets/commune or a total of 60 questionnaires/province (questionnaires were not used for the two cities) • Interview forms for migrant workers in the two cities of Hai Phong and Go Vap District (HCMC): 60 forms/site. • Group discussions using PRA tools at the unit/village/hamlet level: key informants group, poor men group, poor women group and children group • Structured interviews with selected households as case studies • Rapid survey of market chains: interviews of enterprises, shops/agents/traders of foods, inputs and agricultural products In the five provinces/cities the following activities were undertaken: • 180 household questionnaires including 53 poor households and 127 non-poor households (according to the poverty line defined by the Government at the time of the study). Of the 180 respondents, 123 were men, 57 were women; 63 were Kinh, 117 were Thai, Vân Kiu, Êđê, Tay and Nung. • 120 migrant worker interviews including 42 men, 78 women; 88 married and 32 single informants • 223 structured interviews with households and shop keepers/agents, 91 group discussions with local and grassroots cadres with a total number of 687 participants (including 420 men and 267 women; 554 Kinh and 133 EM people) meetings with representatives of five health clinics and 10 schools. • 26 additional interviews of provincial and district officials and meetings with eight enterprises. 1.3.4 Study Team The group of Truong Xuan (Ageless) Consultants consists of five members: • Hoang Xuan Thanh – Truong Xuan Company, Team Leader • Dr. Ngo Van Hai – Agronomist, IPSARD (MARD), Team Member • Dinh Thi Thu Phuong – Truong Xuan Company, Team Member • Pham Viet Son – Truong Xuan Company, Team Member • Ha My Thuan – Truong Xuan Company, Team Member The team was supported by staff members of Action Aid Viet Nam, Oxfam GB and Oxfam Hong Kong including: • Le Kim Dung – Programme Coordinator, Oxfam GB 15
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Province/ City (Urban/rural) Distri
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