Ensuring Strategic Stability in the Past and Present:

Ensuring that there is no such gap is no easy task. It requires knowledge and skills applicable forthe transformation of political (and, in certain instances, political-ideological) directives intoformulas for the development of concrete weapons and military hardware. This, in turn, requiresan understanding of how the components of existing weapon systems will ensure the requiredqualities of these systems—for example, the invulnerability of a land-based missile system. One ofthe complexities associated with this process is rooted in the fact that those who formulate politicaldirectives (and they are often under the strong influence of ideologems) do not always clearlyunderstand the modern operative-strategic environment and the military-technical environment,and do not always have qualified experts and scientists at hand to advise them.In this paper, the author outlines his thoughts on a new configuration of the strategic nuclearforces of the Russian Federation that would feature certain weapon systems and support systems.The author also once again brings up the issue of creating a system of “pre-nuclear deterrence” inthe Russian Federation.Nuclear weapons are an extremely important factor in ensuring not only Russia’s national security,but also the country’s real sovereignty and its status as one of the world’s great powers. However,excessive reliance on these weapons, including reliance at times of acute international crises,would be counterproductive and even dangerous. Therefore, we must be as precise and realistic aspossible in defining political, military-political and operational strategic objectives and targets—above all, when contemplating policy in the post-Soviet geographic space and adjacent regions.Strategic stability studies have been recently put on the back burner and moved below the radarscreen of the majority of political and military leaders, to say nothing of the general public. Thehigh level of strategic stability reduces uncertainty in the relations of the corresponding nuclearstates and enables political leaders of all ranks to focus on solutions of other problems that emergein their countries or in the world as a whole. A high level of strategic stability also creates opportunitiesfor the democratization of inter-state relations and of the overall global political system.As stated above, strategic stability is a complex interdisciplinary subject that has incorporatedelements from the natural sciences and technical engineering. As a whole, however, it constitutesa subject of political science and political psychology, neither of which, unfortunately, has beensufficiently developed in Russia.The complex and multi-dimensional nature of this subject should not serve as an excuse for ignoringit. This subject ought to be studied by political leaders, state bureaucrats, military leaders,scientists and experts in various fields, to say nothing of weapon designers in the defense industry,the scientific community, the Ministry of Defense and the Security Council of the RussianFederation.The maxim formulated by imperial Russian commander Alexander Suvorov that “every soldiermust know his maneuver” can be applied to the task of ensuring not only national security as awhole but also strategic stability in particular. Realization of this maxim requires the conscious,task-oriented efforts of thousands and thousands of people. Whether strategic stability is ensuredor undermined depends on whether the development of entire weapon systems, their individualcomponents, and their support systems is a success or a failure.Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Harvard Kennedy School 5