tunisia after 14 january and its social and political economy - Refworld

unemployment rate among young people from 18 to 29 almost rose to 30% in 2009, and soaredto 45% in the case of higher education graduates, while the figures made public at the timeclaimed a figure of 22.5% for unemployed graduates. These figures seem credible insofar asthey are close to those provided by a study published at the end of 2005 by the World Bank, inwhich the rate of unemployment among senior technicians and those with masters degreeswas close to 50%. 48 According to the 2004 data provided by the Bretton Woods institution, theunemployment figures reached 37% for ages 15-17, 32% for ages 17-19, 29% for ages 20-24and 22% for ages 20-29, while these rates soared to 40% for graduates aged 20-24. 49 Given thedecline in the situation since the middle of the 2000s, especially after 2008, the figures publishedin the press in the wake of the revolution seem credible.Every year, the number of those entering the labour market is estimated at around 140,000, asagainst just 80,000 to 85,000 jobs being created, mainly localised in Greater Tunis and on thecoastal regions. However, the 11th plan (2007-2011) predicted an annual creation of 83,000jobs on the basis of a predicted 6% growth over this period. Now, evidently, growth was lowerthan these predictions suggested – an average of 4%, limiting the number of jobs createdto between 60,000 and 65,000 positions. 50 Among these 140,000 new job seekers, 70,000 aregraduates, 40,000 have come from professional training, and 30,000 have no training. Thesedata suggest the importance of the problem of jobs for young people possessing a minimumtraining when we take into account the fact that the jobs on offer are not very highly qualified.The situation is not likely to improve when we see the effects of social unrest and above all ofthe civil war in Libya on the Tunisian economy. In Tunis, among donors, the business communityand the Tunisian authorities, there are rumours of a loss of 150,000-200,000 jobs in 2011: 10,000jobs have been lost, it is claimed, due to economic paralysis, especially in the public workssector and in certain industries that were already vulnerable before the uprising, 80,000 areunder threat mainly because of the drop in tourism, while 30-35,000 Tunisians are said to havereturned from Libya and are attempting to gain access to the labour market, and the drop inremittances from migrants and the halting of trafficking and smuggling concerns thousands ofpeople. 51 Even if, here too, the figures may be debatable, there is no doubt that unemployment,which was the main flaw which discourse on the ‘miracle’ was attempting to conceal, remainsthe main question to be dealt with.3848 Comparison and figures quoted in Slim Dali, ‘Feu identique, conséquences différentes: un aperçu desinégalités régionales en Tunisie’, El Mouwaten, 1 March 2011, available on: http://www.elmouwaten.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=6149 World Bank, Stratégie de coopération. République tunisienne-Banque mondiale, 2005-2004, WashingtonD.C., 2005.50 National consultation on employment, Compétitivité et croissance. Le défi de l’emploi aux multiplesdimensions. Rapport intermédiaire. Version 2. Septembre 2008, World Bank/Tunisian authorities, Tunis,2008.51 Interviews, Tunis, March 2011.