Feasibility of Fish Passage at Alameda Creek Diversion Dam

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Feasibility of Fish Passage at Alameda Creek Diversion DamModel 17:Model 18:Model 19:Y =α ⎛ X ⎞× ⎜β+ X⎟⎝ ⎠α+β Xδ×Y = ηφ+γ×X=α−β δXY ×( )Model 20: Y = ( α−β× X ) × 1−exp( −φ × X)δγThese models were fitted to the 1994–2004 data using least squares, assuming that the residuals are normallydistributed with mean 0 and standard deviation σ. Table B-1 displays the values of the parameter estimates,the estimated standard deviation of the residuals:N( σ= ˆ ∑ residual N )as well as the coefficient of determination (r²) of the fits for the 20 models.i=1The best of the 20 fitted models was selected using Akaike’s Information Criteria (AIC). AIC was calculatedusing the formula:( ˆ 2)AIC = N × ln σ + 2 × K (Burnham and Anderson, 2002),where K is the number of estimated parameters, and N is the sample size (i.e., N = 3,653).as the square of ˆσ .Table B-2 displays the AIC for the 20 fitted models, together with the AIC differences (i.e.,i2ˆσ was estimatedΔ AICimodel likelihoods (i.e., Λ i ) and the relative model probabilities or Akaike’s weights (i.e., w i ). The modelselected as the best model for the data out of the 20 models corresponds to the model whose fit produced theΔ AIC = AIC − min AIC , while the modelsmallest AIC. The AIC differences were calculated as ( )likelihoods were calculated as:and the Akaike’s weights as:⎛ 1L iα exp ⎜−× ΔAICi⎝ 2i⎞⎟⎠i), thewi= Li20∑i = 1LiThese three additional quantities provide an insight on the relative performance of each fitted model withinthe set of 20 chosen models.ACDD Passage June 2009 Page B-4
Appendix BArroyo Hondo – Alameda Creek Flow Model DevelopmentWith an AIC equal to 23,546.5, model 20 was selected as the best model of the set (Table B-2). The model 20regression is described by the following equation:1.50887( × ) × 1 exp( × )1.20216Y = 543.3766 + 0.00279 X − −0.00142 X ,( )with residual errors assumed to be distributed as ˆ N ( 0, )ε 25.05957 .Figure B-4 displays the observed Alameda Creek mean daily flows as a function of the Arroyo Hondo meandaily flows in the 10/1/94–9/30/04 period (circles) together with the flows predicted by model 20 (line). Thestandard error, σ, is equal to 25.1 and the correlation coefficient, r2, is equal to 0.92 (Table B-1).1,200Y = Alameda Creek Daily Flow (cfs)1,000800600400200Alameda CreekModel 2000 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 3,200 3,600X = Arroyo Hondo Daily Flow (cfs)Figure B-4Observed Flows in Arroyo Hondo and Alameda Creekswith Model Prediction LineACDD Passage June 2009 Page B-5
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T E C H N I C A L M E M O R A N D U
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Feasibility of Fish Passage at Alam
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1.0 Introduction1 INTRODUCTION1.1 B
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24Alamo680DanvilleAlameda CreekWate
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oleyriesSanCalaveras Creekalaveras
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(a)(b)Alameda Creek Diversion Dam (
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2.0 Setting2.3.2.1 ALAMEDA CREEK DI
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2.0 Settingalmost never submerged;
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2.0 SettingRainbow trout are the sa
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2.0 SettingA number of future proje
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(a) A view of the navigation lock a
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(a) A pickup truck adapted for haul
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Approximately 1.8 miles toCalaveras
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Page 77 and 78: 6.0 Additional Considerations and A
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Page 89 and 90: 9.0 Report Preparation9 REPORT PREP
Page 91 and 92: 10.0 References10 REFERENCESAACE (A
Page 93 and 94: 10.0 ReferencesHayes, Darrel, 2001.
Page 95 and 96: 10.0 ReferencesSak, B., San Francis
Page 97: 10.0 ReferencesWDFW (Washington Dep
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Feasibility of Fish Passage at Alameda Creek Diversion Dam

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