ethanol fuel production and use in kenya for sustainable ... - lumes

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Political instability and warin key oil producingcountries -Global demand for oil(Economic giants China&India),-Supply-+ConsumptionB1 -+Natural disasters(hurricanes, floods)+Cost of keroseneand LPG+-WORLD OILPRICES+B2R2+Biomass use:(firewood, charcoal,dung)+B3Price of goods,services and food.Transport cost+GLOBALWARMING++R1Land degradation:(deforestation, poorsoils)++POVERTYandHUNGER-Use of cars+Carbon inatmosphere+Figure 1: Dependence on petroleum fuelsDependence on Petroleum Fuels CLD DescriptionBy applying the concept of CLD instructions given under section 1.2.2.1, the dynamics ofdependence on petroleum fuels are shown in Figure 1. The outside larger circle represents thecauses and effects from a global scale while the thicker arrows on the inside of the circlerepresent causes and effects at the national level. On the outer circle Delay marks have beenused to indicate the changes that occur after many years such as global warming while on theinner circle the delay marks have been used to indicate changes that occur within the rangesof several months to a few years like land degradation. The arrows without delay marksindicate that the changes occur fairly rapidly.BALANCING LOOP (B1)“WORLD OIL PRICES” shown in the upper part of the diagram are affected by “Consumption”and “Supply”. A decrease in “Supply” leads to an increase in “WORLD OIL PRICES”; anincrease “WORLD OIL PRICES” leads to a decrease in “Consumption”; a decrease in“Consumption”; leads to an increase in “Supply”. Decreased supplies of oil could be the resultwar in key oil producing areas or natural disasters which reduce or cut off production leadingto a higher demand than the supply which results in an increase in prices to offset theimbalance.5
REINFORCING LOOP (R1)An increase in “POVERTY and HUNGER” leads to an increase “Biomass use” as people cannotafford alternative fuels like electricity or kerosene and increase “Biomass use” leads to anincrease in “Land degradation” further degradation results from as people turn to nearbyforests for firewood and charcoal thus leading to deforestation and soil erosion. More landdegradation comes from the use of dung and crop residues as fuel which deprive the soil ofnutrients that would have been recycled back into the soil. An increase in “Land degradation”leads to an increase in “POVERTY AND HUNGER” from poor yields that result from poor soils ofdegraded land.REINFORCING LOOP (R2)An increase in “WORLD OIL PRICES” leads to an increase in “Cost of kerosene and LPG 1 ” thisis because Kenya depends on imports thus world oil prices lead to an increase in domesticprices of LPG and kerosene. An increase in “Cost of kerosene and LPG” leads to an increasein “Biomass use” because charcoal and firewood are usually much cheaper than kerosene andLPG. An increase in “Biomass use” leads to an increase in “Land degradation” as earlierstated and an increase in “Land degradation” leads to an increase in “Carbon dioxide inatmosphere” because deforestation practices reduce carbon sequestration through the removalof the plant cover that acts as carbon sinks. An increase in “Carbon dioxide in atmosphere”leads to an increase in “GLOBAL WARMING” because carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas andthus contributes to the greenhouse effect. An increase in “GLOBAL WARMING” leads to anincrease in “Natural disasters” through the effects of climate change that are the result ofglobal warming. An increase in “Natural disasters” leads to a decrease in “Supply” throughcutting off production in the oil producing country that is hit. And a decrease in “Supply”leads to an increase in “WORLD OIL PRICES”BALANCING LOOP (B2)An increase in “WORLD OIL PRICES” leads to an increase in “Transport costs” because thedomestic petroleum pump prices rise when world oil prices rise necessitating the increase infares by car owners to meet the extra cost. An increase in “Transport costs” leads to adecrease in “Use of cars” as commuters to work and school opt to walk in order to savemoney. A decrease in “Use of cars” leads to a decrease in “Consumption” as there will befewer cars on the road. A decrease in “Consumption” leads to an increase in “Supply” fromless cars using petroleum. An increase in supply leads to a decrease in “WORLD OIL PRICES” inorder to increase consumption.BALANCING LOOP (B3)As earlier discussed, an increase in “WORLD OIL PRICES” leads to an increase in “Transportcosts” and an increase in “Transport costs” leads to a decrease in “Use of cars” on the otherhand, a decrease in “Use of cars” leads to a decrease in “Carbon in atmosphere” due to fewercarbon dioxide emissions and a decrease in “Carbon in atmosphere” after a long period oftime leads to a decrease in “GLOBAL WARMING”. A decrease in “GLOBAL WARMING” leads to adecrease in “Natural disasters” due to reversed climate change and a decrease in “Naturaldisasters” leads to an increase in “Supply” through non-interrupted production and an increasein “Supply” leads to a decrease in “WORLD OIL PRICE”.1 LPG = Liquified Petroleum Gas6
Page 1 and 2: LUND UNIVERSITYInternational Master
Page 3 and 4: AcknowledgementsI would like to tha
Page 5 and 6: Table of ContentsAbstract .........
Page 7 and 8: List of acronymsACE - Atmosphere Cl
Page 9 and 10: The oil crisis and low sugar prices
Page 11: patterns that may be used to predic
Page 15 and 16: World Oil Prices and Inflation Tren
Page 17 and 18: the strengthened greenhouse effect
Page 19 and 20: Available arable land(carrying capa
Page 21 and 22: need for higher agricultural growth
Page 23 and 24: atmosphere” leads to a decrease i
Page 25 and 26: evaporative emissions reacts with h
Page 27 and 28: particulate emissions from cane fie
Page 29 and 30: the yields on table 1 probably beca
Page 31 and 32: pastoralists and thus do not cultiv
Page 33 and 34: contributes to global warming. Petr
Page 35 and 36: Gariazzo et al. (2005) Monitoring a
Page 37 and 38: Tsai, et al. (2005) A Hematology Su
Page 39 and 40: Fossil fuels1. Does the country imp

ethanol fuel production and use in kenya for sustainable ... - lumes

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?