pre-feasibility assessment report - Innovationeasterncape.co.za

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African Development Economic ConsultantsADEC11.3%) and Community Services (4,031 or -8.3%). It is not clear why thetransport sector has been losing employment in NMB, especially consideringthe city’s expanding port and related transport infrastructure.Demographic TrendsTrends in population, household base, income, and education were alsoanalysed in order to provide context for the potential development of a scienceor R&D park in Nelson Mandela Bay.PopulationThe population of the Eastern Cape increased by about 4.0% (or 250,000),between 2001 and 2007. The provincial population is therefore increasing at anaverage annual rate of 0.7%. O.R. Tambo District is largest in terms ofpopulation in the Eastern Cape, followed by Amathole District (East Londonarea) and Nelson Mandela Bay.Table 4.POPULATION TRENDS, EASTERN CAPEPROVINCE, 2001-20072001-2007 ChangeJurisdiction 2001 2007 Number Percent Per YearNelson Mandela Bay Metro 1,005,780 1,050,931 45,151 4.5% 0.7%Amathole 1,664,482 1,664,753 271 0.0% 0.0%Cacadu 388,207 363,485 -24,722 -6.4% -1.1%Chris Hani 809,582 798,595 -10,987 -1.4% -0.2%OR Tambo 1,676,590 1,862,224 185,634 11.1% 1.8%Ukhahlamba 341,831 308,366 -33,465 -9.8% -1.6%Alfred Nzo 392,180 479,391 87,211 22.2% 3.7%TOTAL 6,278,652 6,527,745 249,093 4.0% 0.7%Note: Areas as defined by 2001 boundaries for 2001 and 2007.Sources:Statistics South Africa and ADEC.Population growth in Alfred Nzo and OR Tambo exceeded the provincialaverage between 2001 and 2007, while the population of Cacadu, Chris Hani,and uKhahlamba fell during this period. Amathole District Municipality’spopulation base is relatively stagnant while the population of Nelson MandelaBay is growing at the same pace as the province as a whole (0.7% per year).NMB had an estimated population of 1.05 million in 2007, up by about 45,000since 2001. The 1.0 million population threshold is very important for marketingto companies that seek to serve the local market base.103 Algernon Road, Norwood (Johannesburg). Tel (011)728-1965 / 6690 Fax (011)728-8371Adec@ADEC1.com. Suite 131, Private Bag X5, Norwood 2117 SOUTH AFRICA 10
African Development Economic ConsultantsADECHouseholdsEastern Cape Province’s household base increased by 5.3% between2001 and 2007. Household growth is averaging 0.9% per annum (approximately14,000 households), outpacing the rate of population growth (0.7% per year).This trend is likely to accelerate over time as average household size decreaseswith greater mobility, urbanization, education, and income.Table 5.HOUSEHOLD TRENDS, EASTERN CAPEPROVINCE, 2001-20072001-2007 ChangeJurisdiction 2001 2007 Number Percent Per YearNelson Mandela Bay Metro 265,377 276,881 11,504 4.3% 0.7%Amathole 424,794 458,583 33,789 8.0% 1.3%Cacadu 103,002 99,828 -3,174 -3.1% -0.5%Chris Hani 189,729 203,039 13,310 7.0% 1.2%OR Tambo 343,962 356,085 12,123 3.5% 0.6%Ukhahlamba 86,147 90,304 4,157 4.8% 0.8%Alfred Nzo 93,532 102,018 8,486 9.1% 1.5%TOTAL 1,506,543 1,586,738 80,195 5.3% 0.9%Note: Areas as defined by 2001 boundaries for 2001 and 2007.Sources:Statistics South Africa and ADEC.Despite a declining population base, the number of households isincreasing in Chris Hani and Ukhahlamba. Again, the decrease in householdsize most likely accounts for this discrepancy. Cacadu is the only district with adeclining population and household base. Amatole has a growing householdbase, averaging 1.3% per annum. Household growth in Nelson Mandela BayMetro (0.7%), OR Tambo (0.6%), and uKhahlamba (0.8%) during the 2001-2007 period fell slightly below the province’s average of 0.9% per annum.Household IncomeIncomes in Eastern Cape Province are among the lowest on average inSouth Africa. Nevertheless, incomes are increasing. The real averagehousehold income for Eastern Cape increased by 6.4% between 2001 and2007, to R42,900 after accounting for inflation. Real incomes have increased atan average rate of 1.1% per annum.103 Algernon Road, Norwood (Johannesburg). Tel (011)728-1965 / 6690 Fax (011)728-8371Adec@ADEC1.com. Suite 131, Private Bag X5, Norwood 2117 SOUTH AFRICA 11
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