Grade-to-Grade <strong>Flow</strong> R<strong>at</strong>es29universal retention <strong>at</strong> the primary level. A retention r<strong>at</strong>e of 71 percentindic<strong>at</strong>es th<strong>at</strong> about 29 percent children dropped-out from the systembefore reaching Grade V. However, a few st<strong>at</strong>es have much higher retentionr<strong>at</strong>e <strong>at</strong> primary level than the average (71.01 percent) of 286 districts.Tamil Nadu (around 100 percent), Kerala (95.37 percent), Himachal Pradesh(81.38 percent) and Madhya Pradesh (95.50 percent) are such st<strong>at</strong>es. ExceptKerala, retention r<strong>at</strong>e in these st<strong>at</strong>es is not based on the entire st<strong>at</strong>ed<strong>at</strong>a. It seems th<strong>at</strong> with a little more effort, these st<strong>at</strong>es can easily movetowards achieving the goal of universal retention <strong>at</strong> the primary level ofeduc<strong>at</strong>ion. Retention r<strong>at</strong>e in Kerala is based upon the d<strong>at</strong>a of all of its 14districts. Though the retention r<strong>at</strong>e in some of the st<strong>at</strong>es has significantlyimproved over the previous year, the situ<strong>at</strong>ion in rest of the st<strong>at</strong>es includedin the analysis is not encouraging. In Bihar and Jharkhand, it is low <strong>at</strong>42.34 and 59.38 percent respectively, compared to 52.31 percent inUttarakhand and 58.26 percent in West Bengal. Without muchimprovement, neither these st<strong>at</strong>es nor the country as a whole can achievethe goal of universal retention <strong>at</strong> the primary level of educ<strong>at</strong>ion. Clearerpicture will emerge when enrolment d<strong>at</strong>a over a period of five years forthe entire country becomes available.Grade-to-Grade <strong>Flow</strong> R<strong>at</strong>esThe retention r<strong>at</strong>e presents retaining capacity of the system but it fails toidentify problems in the system. Therefore, it would be better to analysegrade-to-grade flow r<strong>at</strong>es between the primary grades. If calcul<strong>at</strong>edsepar<strong>at</strong>ely for boys and girls <strong>at</strong> disaggreg<strong>at</strong>ed levels, such as district, thesame would help in identifying districts and grades where there is highincidence of repetition and drop-outs. With the help of enrolment andrepe<strong>at</strong>ers, first the number of promotees, repe<strong>at</strong>ers and drop-outs acrossthe primary grades is obtained which in turn is linked to the enrolment inthe previous grade in the previous year, to obtain grade-to-grade transitionr<strong>at</strong>es, such as, promotion, repetition and drop-out r<strong>at</strong>es. If number ofrepe<strong>at</strong>ers is not considered, promotion r<strong>at</strong>e is termed as grade r<strong>at</strong>io andis tre<strong>at</strong>ed as a crude indic<strong>at</strong>or. Transition r<strong>at</strong>es, also known as flow r<strong>at</strong>es,can answer a variety of typical questions, such as ‘<strong>at</strong> which grade in thecycle is the repetition or dropout r<strong>at</strong>e highest’; ‘who tends to drop outand repe<strong>at</strong> more frequently, boys or girls’; and ‘wh<strong>at</strong> is the totalaccumul<strong>at</strong>ed loss of students through drop out’. The answers to thesequestions can be obtained, if flow r<strong>at</strong>es for different target groups andfor each grade are computed. The following set of d<strong>at</strong>a is required forcalcul<strong>at</strong>ing flow r<strong>at</strong>es <strong>at</strong> primary level:l Grade-specific enrolment for Grades I, II, III, IV, V and VI (for 2005-06only) for <strong>at</strong> least two consecutive years, say 2004-05 and 2005-06;
30 <strong>Student</strong> <strong>Flow</strong> <strong>at</strong> <strong>Primary</strong> <strong>Level</strong>landGrade-specific repe<strong>at</strong>ers for Grades I, II, III, IV, V and VI in the l<strong>at</strong>estyear, say 2005-06.The r<strong>at</strong>es can be computed by using the following formulae:Promotion R<strong>at</strong>eNumber of student's promoted to Grade 'g + 1' in year 't + 1'= × 100Total number of students in Grade 'g' in year 't'In not<strong>at</strong>ions, it is expressed by the following equ<strong>at</strong>ion:t+1g+ 1t ×gPt(pg) = 100ERepetition R<strong>at</strong>eNumber of repe<strong>at</strong>ers in Grade '=tEgg' in year ' t+ 1'× 100Drop-out R<strong>at</strong>et+1gtgRt(rg) = × 100ENumber of student's dropping-out from Grade 'g' in year 't'= × 100Etgtg ×gtDg(d ) =tEBy using two year’s enrolment d<strong>at</strong>a not only grade-to-grade repetition,drop-out and promotion r<strong>at</strong>es can be obtained, but average of these r<strong>at</strong>es<strong>at</strong> primary level of educ<strong>at</strong>ion can also be worked out. The average indic<strong>at</strong>esvalue of these r<strong>at</strong>es during the intermediary period, i.e. between twoyears on the basis of which grade-to-grade r<strong>at</strong>es are worked out. Theaverage r<strong>at</strong>es are also known as overall r<strong>at</strong>es. The comput<strong>at</strong>ional procedureis presented below.100