Impetus - Universität zu Köln

8IMPETUS Introductiondicted precisely. Therefore the bandwidth of future developments has to be assessed with thehelp of likely scenarios. This will also serve as a basis for assessment of suitable managementoptions for decision makers. In a first step coarse scenarios were designed based on the generaldevelopment in the countries under consideration and in agreement with local stakeholders. In asecond step these coarse scenarios were regionalised and detailed for specific problems. Thedesign of scenarios took into account the following aspects: climate change, socio-culturalchange, institutional change, population dynamics, economic development, and technologicalinnovation. The scale-dependent assessment (in time and space) of future development constitutesthe indispensable foundation for the design and implementation of management toolsneeded for decision makers in the course of the last three-year phase (starting in 2006).