Impetus - Universität zu Köln

28IMPETUS Development of scenariosIn the High Atlas the population stays on a high level. Emigration towards the economic centresand towards Ouarzazate increases strongly, but is compensated by a strong increase of birthrates. We witness high rates of migration also in the Ouarzazate Basin. However, this is partiallycompensated by internal migration. Immigration occurs especially from the High Atlas and fromthe south. In the Ouarzazate Basin urbanisation gets more importance and urban life styles areadopted by more and more people.Living conditions worsen due to shrinking public funding. It becomes more and more problematicto maintain the regional infrastructure for education and vocational training. Schools depraveand teachers are less motivated to work in this region. Costs for education rise strongly, aggravatingthe possibility for families to send their children to school. The level of education thusstays low, especially regarding girls. Schools that teach the Koran are more and more accessed.Environment and resourcesThe disposal of waste and waste water remains unregulated in all three regions causing manifoldenvironmental and health problems especially in urban centres. The privatisation of water supplycauses a strong increase of water prices which constraints the access to water for parts of thepopulation. But it is primarily the increase of energy prices that has the strongest consequences:the population starts to make increasingly use of local firewood which increases the pressure onthe natural vegetation. The set-up of nature reserves is less helpful, since it happens usually onlypro forma. It is easier for the government to set-up nature reserves in this area compared to thecoastal regions where tourism is supposed to be supported. The high energy prices increase theattractiveness of photovoltaic installations.Commercialisation and declining public interest trigger a worsening of water management, leadingto an uncontrolled and unsustainable use of groundwater. The competition between communitieson the upper and lower river regions implies a strong potential for conflicts.Water availability is not a problem in the High Atlas. But the supply with drinking water ismainly dependent on the initiatives of the local population because public programmes are not inplace. Forest impaction is, however, in a balance with the rate of natural renewal.In Ouarzazate Basin the interest of public agencies in a functional and targeted water managementis also marginal, despite the importance of the sector for sustainable regional development.Instead, the public agencies withdraw their engagement in water management. Efficiency of usein agriculture remains on the same level. Domestic water use rises. Costs for water extraction(water pumps) increase, mainly due to the rise of energy prices.In the Oases the northern and southern oases have to be distinguished. Water quality decreases inthe two southern oases due to lacking funding for infrastructure renewal. Higher energy costsimpose increased costs of water extraction in this region also.