Impetus - Universität zu Köln

10IMPETUS Development of scenariosScenario requirementsScenarios can be developed both qualitatively or quantitatively. It is, however, state-of-the-art tocombine qualitative and quantitative analysis. Prominent examples are the scenarios of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) or the scenarios of the Millennium EcosystemAssessment von UNEP (UNEP, 2005). The following criteria are relevant for scenariodevelopment:• Qualitative storylines are generated that describe the general characteristics of the scenarioand the main driving forces, but also the degree of their mutual interaction.• The driving forces will be quantified on the basis of the storylines and are used for thesimulation of impacts.• Generation of storylines and the definition of indicators should be done in cooperationwith decision-makers and stakeholders.• Quite often, so called reference- or base scenarios are developed first that describe possiblegeneral developments of the system under investigation. Afterwards intervention (orpolitical)-scenarios are generated which analyse the influence of certain external events(war, economic crisis), policies, programmes or single measures on the system under investigation.DefinitionsThe terminus driving forces refers to these activities or structures, which influence a system, butare not influenced by the system itself (see EEA, 2001). Examples for driving forces are the trafficdevelopment in a country, its industry structure, the demographic development or the level ofpolitical stability. These driving forces trigger specific environmental pressures that can be measuredvia specific indicators (pressures) and lead to a certain state of the environment that can beassessed via state indicators (states). This triggers reactions from society and economy. Responseindicators describe these societal reactions to environmental problems or other societal problems.This concerns, for example, impacts like the effectiveness of programmes or measuresalike. An example for a response indicator in the area of climate protection is the volume of expendituresfor research projects concerning energy efficiency (Coehnen, 2000).The linkage of the defined aspects is broadly accepted by now and is widely used in the indicatormodels of the OECD and the European Environment Agency (Driving-Forces/Pressure/State/Impact/Response-(DPSIR) Models, EEA, 2005; OECD, 1993).