Impetus - Universität zu Köln

14IMPETUS Development of scenariosII.1.3Skalen der Szenarien / Scales of scenariosWe divided the regions of the catchments into homogenous sub-regions that differ regarding themain driving forces. The construction of sub-regions considers:• administrative boundaries• demographic framework conditions• economic framework conditions• natural framework conditionsIn the research area in Benin, which covers most of catchment area of the Ouémé river, we distinguishthe following three scenario sub-regions.• Higher-Ouémé: This sub-region can be characterized as a rural region with a low populationdensity and only one rain period.• Middle-Ouémé: This sub-region is also a rural region and the southern border of transhumance.• Lower-Ouémé: This sub-region, in contrast, is characterised by a well-developed infrastructureand shows a high rate of urbanization that goes hand in hand with a high populationdensity. There are two rain periods.In the research area in Morocco, the upper Drâa valley till Lake Iriki, we distinguish the followingthree scenario regions:• High Atlas: This sub-region can be characterised as a marginalised mountain region witha poorly developed infrastructure. Water availability is, however, relatively good and isthus only a weak limiting factor for agricultural production.• Basin of Ouarzazate: The good water availability is a specific feature of this sub-regionthat is also characterised by a well-developed infrastructure and strong urban centresOuarzazate, Boumalne Dadès, Kalaat M'gouna, Taznakht and Tinghir.• Oases southern of Mansour Eddahbi Dam: Low water availability is a main impedimentfor economic development is this sub-region. Agriculture is dependent on the managementof the Mansour Eddahbi dam.The temporal resolution is 5 years. The target year is 2025 and 2020 for Benin and Morocco,respectively. This choice is motivated by pre-existing longterm strategy papers of local governments(Bénin 2025: ALAFIA, Stratégies de développement du Bénin à long terme, Minist. deCoord. Plan. Devel. Empl., PNUD (2000); Stratégie 2020 de développement rural, Document deRéference; Conseil Général du Développement Agricole au Maroc, (1999)).