Impetus - Universität zu Köln

22IMPETUS Development of scenariosThe availability of agriculture areas and the demand for workers in this sector turn Upper-Ouéméinto an attractive target for migrants from other regions that are characterised by scarcity of agricultureareas. The growing demand for family workers derogates the success of the family planningprogrammes which contributed to the decrease of the population growth. The rate of childmortality is high due to insufficient basic medical treatment. This leads to an increase of the birthrate. The regional population in Upper-Ouémé grows, also due to immigration, both internallyand from neighbour countries. The strong demand for agricultural workers and the lack of alternativesin cities slow down the urbanisation of the region.However, growth rates in Middle-Ouémé are falling. The balance of migration is even - the regionno longer is an attractive target for immigration. Migration into the neighbour countriesNigeria, Togo and Ivory Coast, but also into Europe proliferates.There is a similar picture in Lower-Ouémé. But the rate of emigration is higher due to the scarcityof agricultural areas. Medium sized cities also grow faster. Target regions for migration areespecially Upper-Ouémé and Nigeria.Quality of life declines in all regions. The degradation of natural resources, the decline of developmentcooperation and growing conflicts reduce the capability of wider parts of the populationto respond effectively to crises. The supply in areas like medical care, education, energy, waterand food is inadequate. Local authorities cannot ensure resources for maintaining the infrastructure.Economic activities are reduced to satisfying basic needs in many regions. More and morechildren don’t go to school but have to work. Migration of children increases as a result. Alsoreligious conflicts intensify.Environment and resourcesThe increase pressure on natural resources triggers conflicts between different users about scarceresources. This holds especially true for Upper-Ouémé. Here conflicts arise especially betweenlivestock farmers and crop producers. In Middle-Ouémé the conflicts rise between autochthonsand immigrants. In Lower-Ouémé the conflicts concerns agriculture and housing development.In all regions uncontrolled processes of land use lead to deforestation. This aggravates processesof soil degradation. Water use does not really change. Unclear legal ownership structures facilitatean uncontrolled uptake of land and trigger related conflicts between different user groups.The administration is not able to secure a functioning resource management due to missing capacities(personal, financial resources, legitimacy, and political support). Accordingly they arealso not able to moderate user conflicts. These deficits are apparent in all areas, from the forestprotection over water protection to protection against erosion.