Impetus - Universität zu Köln

16IMPETUS Development of scenariosFor each problem cluster (see chapter III) there is a clear-defined concept for embedding the scenarios.Quantification of scenarios in the problem clusters has been accomplished for singleproblem-clusters and will be accomplished shortly for the remaining problem clusters.It is foreseen to use the third phase of the project especially for assessing impacts of specific programmesand measures under different framework conditions. This will be done with the help ofintervention scenarios which are the next step in the order of scenario development. They arenecessary insofar as they link the conceptual scenario development and scenario analysis withthe generation of relevant policy advice. They inform about possible impacts of certain programmesunder certain framework conditions. Thus they reduce uncertainties for political decision-making.They are an important feature of the envisaged Decision-Support-System.Intervention scenarios will be run in all problem clusters. However, it is necessary to distinguishbetween those intervention scenarios that affect all problem clusters and those intervention scenariosthat only affect specific policies, programmes and measures. The latter are only relevantfor certain problem clusters. The first category of intervention scenarios comprises general interventionslike civil wars in neighbour countries that might trigger large migration. The secondcategory of intervention scenarios comprises specific interventions like the introduction of newsalt tolerant plants in the Drâa Oases. These scenarios are only defined for problem clusters ofrelevance. The descriptions of the single problem clusters contain further examples of interventionscenarios.This step of analysis generates a broad data basis for the final economic and ecological evaluationof possible measures in Benin and Morocco. It is intended to provide relevant political decision-makersand societal actors with relevant project results. These should also be part of theintended decision-support-system. In the end these activities should support the capacitybuildingin the region. This concerns the further diffusion of the methods of scenario analysis aswell, which can be utilised in other decision-making processes.Furthermore it remains to be analysed whether the results of IMPETUS can be fruitfully utilisedin other processes of scenario development in Africa. For example, the existing scenarios forAfrica of the Global Environmental Outlook of UNEP are currently refined, with a view tostrengthen regional analysis. The results of IMPETUS can support the regionalisation of globalscenarios on the one hand. On the other hand data and assumptions of the GEO-scenarios can beused to validate the assumptions of the intervention scenarios in IMPETUS.