Impetus - Universität zu Köln

34IMPETUS Development of scenariosTrekking tourism stabilises on a low level in the High Atlas. Industry is not located in this region.In Ouarzazate Basin the processing of agricultural products (roses, safran) stagnates on a lowlevel. The services sector is strongly expanding in the urban centre of Ouarzazate, but also in themiddle centres of the area. This is partly influenced by the increasing investments into tourism.In the Oases money from international migrants is used for purchasing motor pumps which areincreasingly used for the production of Lucerne for local markets. The desert tourism in thesouth is the main beneficiary of the positive development in the tourism sector.Developments within agricultureDue to the continuing dominance of subsistence farming most farmers remain to be landowners,too. The agriculture area is not really expanded, mainly because farmers are constraint to irrigationfarming. Innovations in the agriculture concern improvements of seeds and a more effectiveuse of fertiliser and pesticides, which are funded by regional organisations (for example ORM-VAO). The mechanisation of agriculture does not really increase, too, mainly due to the manysmall parcels of irrigated land. Only the use of motor pumps improves. Traditional distributionmechanisms nonetheless dominate irrigated agriculture, although they loose importance in someregions as motor pumps promote individualisation. The enforcement of individual rights overcollective rights is more and more furthered with the help of jurisdiction which is perceived asexpensive and corrupt.In the High Atlas changes in the agriculture will remain marginally. Only cash-crop production(like apples) for local markets is expected to increase. Agriculture area cannot be extendedwidely, so that expansion takes place at the expense of areas for subsistence farming. Traditionalsystems of water distribution continue to dominate due to the geological conditions, but also dueto the better water availability and a lower diffusion of motor pumps. Livestock farming continuesto be shaped by transhumance which is not in a competition with crop farming. Domesticlivestock remain on a low level.In the Ouarzazate Basin the Cash-Crop production stagnates. Transhumant breeders becomecompetitors to livestock owners especially in the foreland of the Atlas. Agriculture productionimproves through the increase of migration; in addition the commercialisation of agriculture isdeepened.In the Oases the production and marketing of dates is declining, mainly because the date diseaseBayod is not sufficiently treated and prices for imported dates are quite low. Due to the increasednumber of working migrants and a change of values especially among young men a shortage ofthe workforce occurs, despite the general population growth. Abandonment of agriculture areasis the consequence.Development of demographic framework conditions / live qualityPopulation grows, driven by a high birth rate. Family planning programmes are implemented butare not really successful. Population growth is compensated by the strongly growing rates ofmigration towards the economic centres of Morocco and a relatively high rate of childhood mortality.The increased rate of working migration leads to manifold changes in the family struc-