Satellite detection of hazardous volcanic clouds and ... - Savaa - NILU

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Nat Hazardsrates. Largest increases are expected in the Middle East and Asia Pacific regions, withmany more commercial and freight traffic crossing the Pacific Rim. During 2004–2007commercial air traffic grew at 8.6% for the Asia/Pacific region, compared to 6.8% for theworld. The Middle East region grew at an annual average rate of 10.9%. Air freight trafficis also growing. For the period 2002–2015 air freight traffic is expected to grow at anannual average rate of 6.4% for the Asia Pacific, 6.6% for the Middle East and 5.5%globally (ESCAP 2005). The Asia Pacific region is also a region with many volcanoes—approximately 450, and about 50% of the world’s active volcanoes lie along the PacificRim—the so-called ‘‘Ring of Fire’’. Coupled with the trend from using 4-engined jetaircraft to using twin-engined aircraft, there is a significant increase in vulnerability of theworld’s air traffic fleet to loss of aircraft due to encounters with a volcanic ash cloud.Figure 7 shows an estimate of the global air traffic density based on the 2002 NOxemissions taken from the AERO2k emissions inventory (Eyres et al. 2004) for the monthof October and for flight levels of FL 350 (pressure altitude of 33,000 ft) to FL 390(39,000 ft). NOx emissions are used here as a proxy for air traffic density and are a goodindicator of the global spatial pattern of air traffic. Also shown on this Figure are allFig. 7 Global density of air traffic as measured by monthly averaged NOx emissions for FL 350 to FL 390(pressure altitudes of 33,000 ft up to 39,000 ft) taken from the AERO2k emissions inventory of Eyers et al.(2004). Emissions are shown for October 2002. The colour code is linearly scaled with greatest emissionsrepresented as deepest blue. The red triangles indicate the positions of Holocene and Historically listedvolcanoes taken from the Smithsonian database (Simkin and Siebert 1994). There are over 1,200 volcanoesindicated on the plot. The OMI SO 2 column observations from the eruption of Jebel at Tair during 1–10October 2007 are also shown on this plot. These data are scaled to show the relative column amounts eachday as observed by OMI, with red representing the highest values and green the lowest123
Nat HazardsHolocene and historically known volcanoes (Simkin and Seibert 1994). The greatest trafficdensities are seen over Europe and North America, with noticeable air traffic trajectoriesacross the north Atlantic (the NATs) and from Japan to south-east Asian populationcentres. To illustrate the vulnerability of air traffic to encounters with volcanic clouds, theOMI SO 2 cloud observations from the eruption of Jebel at Tair during 1–10 October, 2007are overlaid onto the Figure. Eckhardt et al. (2008) estimate that the cloud travelled mostlyjust above the tropopause at altitudes between 14 and 16 km. As most commercial aircraftcruise at around 13 km (39,000 ft) this may not have been a problem for currently operatingair traffic, however should fleets of HSCT aircraft operate in the future, dispersedvolcanic debris, far from its source will become an increasing risk to these aircraft. Latermodelled trajectories suggest that the cloud may have re-entered the troposphere andre-curved south and westwards towards India, where OMI also observed the cloud, albeit atmuch lower concentrations.With increased air traffic over the Asia/Pacific region and with many active volcanoeslocated there, it is concluded that this region will become increasingly vulnerable toaviation/volcanic cloud encounters. The potential for an encounter is illustrated using theair traffic density forecast for 2025 and an eruption from a remote volcano located in theNorthern Mariana Islands. During 2003 until the present, Anatahan volcano in the NorthernMariana Islands (16.35° N, 145.67° E) has been emitting ash clouds into the atmosphere atregular intervals. This volcano lies under an air route from Guam and Saipan to Japan andash clouds from the volcano frequently intercept the major air routes from south-eastAustralia, and the Philippines to Japan and Korea. Figure 8 shows the coincidence offorecast April 2025 air traffic density (FL 350 to FL 390) with volcanoes and an AIRS SO 2cloud from Anatahan for April 2005. This cloud covered an area of more than 1.3 millionkm 2 over 3 days in April, reached an altitude of at least 15 km (*48,000 ft) and airtraffic was diverted on several occasions. The ash and gas cloud continued to spreadwestwards, eventually intercepting Philippine air space and continued on towards theSouth China Sea. At most times of the year, eruptions in this region are likely to send ashwestwards and into busy air corridors involving south-east Asia, Japan, Korea andAustralia.6 ConclusionsSatellite instruments are able to identify and track hazardous ash and SO 2 clouds in theatmosphere for hours to several weeks. Ash has a considerably shorter lifetime (*hours) inthe atmosphere than SO 2 (*days to weeks) and is more difficult to identify and quantify.Ash is much more hazardous to jet aircraft than SO 2 and has been responsible for severalcomplete engine shut-downs and significant air-frame damage. Under favourable circumstancesit appears that by tracking SO 2 clouds from satellite, the movement of the morehazardous ash clouds may be inferred, but care must be taken as there are documentedcases (Schneider et al. 1999; Prata and Kerkmann 2007) where ash and SO 2 separate andtravel in different directions and at different heights in the atmosphere. Operationally thereare no reliable ash cloud height estimates available from satellites. The CALIPSO lidar canprovide excellent height estimates for aerosols (H 2 SO 4 aerosol in the case of volcanicclouds), but the poor horizontal spatial coverage and poor temporal coverage make theinstrument inadequate for operational use. The recent study by Eckhardt et al. (2008) hasshown that by using satellite estimates of volcanic cloud trajectories with Lagrangiandispersion models, the injection height profile of the volcanic eruption may be estimated.123
Page 1 and 2: Nat HazardsDOI 10.1007/s11069-008-9
Page 3 and 4: Nat HazardsThe article is organized
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