cities

The higher voter turnouts in 2011 were likely the result of closely contested elections in cities (Schulz
Herzenberg, 2012). For example, between 2006 and 2011, voter turnout increased by 15% in Cape
Town, reflecting the race for the control of the city. Support for the ANC has declined in metropolitan
areas but increased in rural areas (O’Donovan, 2015): the average support for the ANC in metropolitan
areas was 55% in contrast to 77% in rural areas.
Table 6.2 suggests that the 2016 local elections will be hotly contested in many of the metros.
Table 6.2: ANC (as dominant party) support trends in metros
Metro
% population in rural
or traditional areas
2004
%
2009
%
2014
%
Johannesburg 0 69 63 54
Ekurhuleni 0 70 68 56
Cape Town 0 45 33 32
Nelson Mandela 0 69 50 49
Tshwane 1 67 61 51
Mangaung 7 77 65 64
eThekwini 15 59 68 66
Buffalo City 16 82 68 68
Source: O’Donovan (2012)
In urban areas, governance concerns (accountability, transparency, representation and economic
security) define electoral politics, whereas in rural areas the issue is basic service provision. In metros,
poor governance and uneven development in the context of rapid urbanisation creates instability,
making urban reform and transformation urgent (O’Donovan, 2015). This is evident in the continuous
governance challenges in Buffalo City (Mfene, 2014). If these concerns of urban communities are not
addressed, “the schism between rural and urban areas is set to increase”, and there is likely to be
“increasing protest action among the disadvantaged in urban areas as well as a sense of grievance that
increasingly cuts across class lines in rapidly growing metropoles”. 5
6
5 http://dullahomarinstitute.org.za/our-focus/mlgi/talking-good-governance/election-2014-the-coming-battle-for-control-of-thebig-cities
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