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“mcs” — 2017/3/3 — 11:21 — page 868 — #876<br />

868<br />

Chapter 20<br />

Deviation from the Mean<br />

20.4.2 Pairwise Independent Sampling<br />

The reasoning we used above to analyze voter polling and matching birthdays is<br />

very similar. We summarize it in slightly more general <strong>for</strong>m with a basic result<br />

called the Pairwise Independent Sampling Theorem. In particular, we do not need<br />

to restrict ourselves to sums of zero-one valued variables, or to variables with the<br />

same distribution. For simplicity, we state the Theorem <strong>for</strong> pairwise independent<br />

variables with possibly different distributions but with the same mean and variance.<br />

Theorem 20.4.1 (Pairwise Independent Sampling). Let G 1 ; : : : ; G n be pairwise<br />

independent variables with the same mean and deviation . Define<br />

Then<br />

<br />

S n<br />

Pr<br />

ˇˇˇˇ n<br />

S n WWD<br />

nX<br />

G i : (20.22)<br />

iD1<br />

<br />

ˇ x 1 <br />

2<br />

:<br />

n x<br />

Proof. We observe first that the expectation of S n =n is :<br />

P n Sn<br />

iD1<br />

Ex D Ex<br />

G <br />

i<br />

(def of S n )<br />

n<br />

n<br />

P n<br />

iD1<br />

D<br />

ExŒG i<br />

(linearity of expectation)<br />

P<br />

n<br />

n<br />

iD1<br />

D<br />

<br />

n<br />

D n n D :<br />

The second important property of S n =n is that its variance is the variance of G i<br />

divided by n:<br />

<br />

Sn 1<br />

2<br />

Var D VarŒS n (Square Multiple Rule <strong>for</strong> Variance (20.9))<br />

n n<br />

" nX<br />

#<br />

D 1 n 2 Var G i (def of S n )<br />

iD1<br />

D 1 n 2<br />

nX<br />

VarŒG i <br />

iD1<br />

D 1 n 2 n 2 D 2<br />

(pairwise independent additivity)<br />

n : (20.23)

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