Unlocking global value

Finally, cells incorporating quantum dots (QDs) that are connected
by carbon nanotubes or even proteins will provide extremely high
energy conversion efficiencies of potentially up to 50% at a relatively
low cost. By using dots of different sizes, a PV cell can be devised
to capture and convert the entire solar spectrum. Though still in an
early stage of research, the technology has breakthrough potential
and is, among others, being actively explored by the US National
Renewable Energy Laboratory. Some nanotechnology concepts
are likely to hit the PV mass market within the next five years; others
will take more than a decade. Meanwhile, the thin film and conventional
wafer-based panels should see continuing optimization.
Figure 4
Dye-sensitized solar cell
This nanotechnology solar cell type converts sunlight into electric current
using organic molecules. Source: Dyesol Ltd., Credit Suisse
Nanoporous
TiO 2 Layer e – GLOBAL INVESTOR 2.07 Switching — 51
Light
Transparent
Conductor
Towards flexible energy supply
In the long term, cheap and efficient solar cells will likely create an
embedded source of low-cost renewable power wherever there is
light. With solar cells on the rise, a considerable portion of worldwide
electric power generation could be decentralized. According
to the IEA, developing countries are expected to account for twothirds
of the increase in world primary energy demand between
2002 and 2030. In terms of global CO2 emissions, these countries
will be responsible for 49% of total emissions in 2030. While mature
industrialized economies can afford a sustainable energy supply,
the renewable energy share in developing countries is forecast
to decrease in the future. Price reductions for solar energy could
break this trend and provide emerging economies with sustainable
energy. Off-grid applications could improve quality of life for about
1.6 billion people around the world living without basic energy services
(most of whom are in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa).
Solar-powered tools could be a backbone for the infrastructure in
many emerging markets. Just a few years from now, a myriad of
mobile electronic devices and millions of homes and offices could
source their power directly and independently from the sun.
Nanotechnology
&
Biomimetics
Dye
Electrolyte
Conducting
Substrate
–
Electricity
+
Note on the investor’s perspective
In the short term, first-generation PVs should clearly continue to
dominate the market. Consequently, large players in this market
segment like Kyocera or the German Q-Cells are most likely to
benefit from rising PV sales worldwide. However, EPIA estimates
that first-generation market share will drop from its current 92% to
below 80% by 2010, while thin-film technology in the same period
should see a corresponding increase to 18%. A number of larger
providers like Sharp also intend to strengthen thin-film-type solar
cells as a second pillar of their product line. Investors wishing to
gain exposure to second-generation technology at this stage are
likely to see less risk investing in such stocks than in the abovementioned
start-ups. Nanotechnology-based third-generation cells
are forecast to gain significant market share of around 10% by
2020, even growing to 30% by 2030. As of today, however, the
companies developing third-generation solar technology are mostly
early-stage enterprises exposed to both significant business and
market risks.