West Newsmagazine 3-21-18

WESTNEWSMAGAZINE.COM
MARCH 21, 2018
CARDINALS SALUTE 2018 25
WEST NEWSMAGAZINE
2018 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
SEASON PREVIEW
“Sometimes, you win. Sometimes, you lose. Sometimes, it rains.”
– Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh, from the classic baseball film “Bull Durham”
It is with those words of existential
wisdom that we kick off our 2018 St. Louis
Cardinals Baseball Preview. Let’s be honest
with ourselves, Redbird Nation, sometimes
it does not just rain, it pours. Take,
for example, when two of your most bitter
rivals have won the two previous World
Series [Cubs in 2016, Astros in 2017]. That
certainly qualifies as a serious storm.
But fear not, hometown fans, all is not lost.
The clouds are parting and the sun is
peaking through. To keep this overlong
analogy running, the “sun” in this instance
goes by the name of Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna
joins our Cardinals as the most significant
offseason addition of any team in the major
league, in our opinion. But that is not the
only bright spot for the 2018 Cardinals.
While we did miss the playoffs last year,
we identified two “new” players, who each
ended last year as top five for their respective
positions, notably Tommy Pham and
Paul DeJong. Pitching phenom Anthony
Reyes is set to return a month or so into the
season, and a full year of Luke Weaver is a
definite upgrade over Mike Leake.
The Cardinals are built to be consistently
competitive. We measure time in
generations, not peaks and valleys. To put
it another way, storms blow over pretty
quickly around here.
ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES
Hey, does everybody remember when
we were all so bummed out because Jason
Heyward left town? If our editor would
let us use emojis in our stories, we would
insert the one where the bright yellow face
laughs so hard it cries. Heyward went
to Chicago and his offensive statistics
drowned in Lake Michigan.
This year’s version of Heyward seemingly
comes in the form of Lance Lynn. He
was a beloved Cardinal, mostly because
of his bulldog-style of pitching and ability
to eat innings like White Castle sliders.
Where Lynn differs from Heyward, however,
is that it doesn’t seem like the Redbirds
wanted Lynn back at almost any price,
no matter how bad his market cratered.
The Cardinals front office seemed to value
the draft pick compensation they received
if he signed with another team more than
they did Lance Lynn. That should tell us
something. While Lynn’s simple metrics of
wins and earned run average looked great
[Lou Countryman photo]
last year, his advanced metrics were concerning
to say the least.
Other ‘birds leaving the nest include Stephen
Piscotty [traded to the Oakland A’s],
Randall Grichuk [traded to the Toronto
Blue Jays], Zach Duke, Seung Hwan Oh,
Juan Nicasio and Trevor Rosenthal [all free
agents]. There is more name recognition on
that list than there is baseball importance,
most likely. The only player that would
have been very nice to hold on to was Juan
Nicasio. There is no such thing as too many
relief pitchers who can generate swings and
misses. By the way, if you have not read all
the back story behind why the Cardinals
traded Stephen Piscotty to the Oakland A’s,
you really should. It does the heart good.
In regard to players added by the Cardinals,
we already referenced that there was
no more important addition than former
Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna. Beyond
the hard statistics, Ozuna provides the Cardinals
with a very subjective element they
lacked in their lineup last year: fear.
While the Cardinals had a successful
offensive team, there was no single
player that opposing teams were necessarily
afraid to pitch to. That element of
fear trickles down and changes the way
that every hitter is pitched to in the lineup.
In the past, the Redbirds had Matt Holliday
and Albert Pujols serving in that role.
Despite the breakout performances from
Pham and DeJong, and the strong power
year from Dexter Fowler, there was not a
single player in the 2017 lineup that would
dictate how another team would pitch to
the other players. Ozuna gives that to the
2018 version of the Cardinals.
Perhaps the most interesting addition of
the offseason was starting pitcher Miles
Mikolas. Mikolas was a massive success
pitching in Japan and has electric stuff, but
it remains to be seen how that stuff will
translate to getting major league hitters out.
Mikolas pitched in the big leagues before
and, well, he ended up in Japan.
Another key addition is presumptive
closer Luke Gregerson. The Cardinals also
added relievers Dominic Leone and Bud
Norris, but it is Gregerson who is in line
to become the next Cardinals closer. Gregerson
is a veteran reliever who has had an
up-and-down career, mostly serving as a
setup man, but he has swing and miss stuff.
This also is a good place to mention
some critical additions to the Cardinals
coaching staff. We certainly celebrate the
return of “secret weapon” José Oquendo
and the addition of fan favorite Wille
McGee. Yet it is likely new pitching coach
Mike Maddux who will have the greatest
direct impact. Never mind. It always will
be Oquendo who has the greatest impact,
but Maddux has been a highly successful
coach in the past and should be able to
sculpt some of the Cardinals young pitchers
into successful career superstars.
KEY CONTRIBUTORS
This is the part of the column where we
talk about the contributions needed from
some of the “old guys” on the Cardinals
roster, but it is important to add one caveat:
there is not a single active player on the
Cardinals team who was alive in the 1970s.
So, understand that when we say “old,”
everything is relative, and we are speaking
solely in terms of baseball years.
Maybe we should say “veterans” instead?
Yes, let’s use that.
In order to have a successful 2018, the
Cardinals need a big year from a few veterans.
For the position players, the straws
that stir the drink are Matt Carpenter and
Yadier Molina. Carpenter had a down year
last year, due largely to lingering injuries.
This spring, he started with a troublesome
back issue. If Carpenter is healthy and can
return to his 2016 form, he can propel this
team a long way.
It seems every year we ask exactly how
long Yadier Molina can keep producing
at such an exceptionally high level. Mere
mortal catchers eventually break down, but
this is Yadi, not a mortal. While we hope
he takes a few more days off this year [and
lets his heir apparent Carson Kelly catch
some games], we do not expect it. Rather,
we fully expect Yadi to continue to be Yadi.
On the pitching side, no Cardinal shoulders
bear more responsibility than Adam
Wainwright. He no longer is the best
pitcher on the Cardinals staff, but he still is
undeniably our “ace.” Just as Ozuna’s fear
factor trickles through the rest of the lineup,
Wainwright’s ability to get outs impacts the
rest of the staff. There still is no Redbird
pitcher we would rather see on the mound
if we need to get a single out.
ROSTER PREDICTIONS
Pitchers [5 Starters, 7 Bullpen]
Carlos Martinez: 15/3.00
Michael Wacha: 17/3.50
Adam Wainwright: 14/3.50
Miles Mikolas: 10/4.00
Luke Weaver: 14/3.70
Luke Gregerson: 3.00
Tyler Lyons: 2.75
Dominic Leone: 2.50
Brett Cecil: 3.00
Matt Bowman: 4.00
Sam Tuivailala: 2.50
Bud Norris: 4.50
John Brebbia: 3.00
Starting Infield
Yadier Molina: .260/15/70
Matt Carpenter: .290/20/75
Kolten Wong: .275/15/50
Jedd Gyorko: .270/25/75
Paul DeJong: .275/25/80
Starting Outfield
Marcell Ozuna: .260/30/90
Tommy Pham: .280/20/80
Dexter Fowler: .280/15/60
Bench
Carson Kelly
Greg Garcia
Jose Martinez
Harrison Bader
Luke Voit