Adventure Magazine Issue 220

While there are plenty of reasons to believe that
that opportunities in the backcountry are scarce,
there is still no justification for downplaying
dangers that are present when you are out there.
Over the last 20 years a large proportion of the
avalanche fatalities in NZ involve the scarcity
heuristic trap. These were usually individuals not
who weren’t ignorant to the dangers in front of
them. Most would have been able to identify the
hazard. But, for various reasons, they decided to
accept an elevated level of risk because ‘scarcity’
influenced their decision making.
A clear, reoccurring example of this comes to
mind. I’ve heard numerous times ‘considerable’
avalanche danger referred to as “3 out of 5” or an
“orange”. This is missing the point. The danger
scale isn’t like ski-run grades or mountain-bike
track grades. In those cases, the black runs
are more difficult and dangerous, but they are
designed to be ridden. “Extreme” avalanche
danger is not, nor is “high” for that matter. These
are times to avoid avalanche terrain altogether.
“Considerable” avalanche danger effectively
means treating the snowpack like you would your
most challenging ski-runs and bike-tracks. It’s
going to require high-level experience and skills to
navigate through and pick the right line. And even
then, sometimes it’s just best to save it for another
day.
It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking, “I’ve got
this chance, I have to take it”. But as scarce as
those moments are (even in New Zealand!), there
will always be more. That might not be true if you
make the wrong choice and put the goal ahead of
the evidence.
“But it is one thing to read about dragons and
another to meet them.”
-Ursula K. Le Guin, A Wizard of Earthsea
What came as a surprise to us was that
the people who were skipping those
steps and making those errors should
have known better. These individuals
were typically experienced, skilled and
would have had the training to learn
about and then apply critical thinking
over the years. The avalanches they
were getting caught in weren’t one-ina-hundred-year
unpredictable events.
These were often text-book examples of
avalanches that we see and hear about
every day and can easily be overlooked
or misjudged.
What’s clear is that heuristic traps
are a key component. If you’re not
familiar, heuristic traps are situations
we (humans) fall into where we may
make decisions (consciously or not) that
conflict with the evidence available or
the situation we find ourselves in. We
make assumptions, favour convenience,
or judge things based on a bias. These
‘traps’ are explained in different ways
depending on who you talk to, but
the acronym FACETS (Familiarity,
Acceptance, Consistency, Expert-Halo,
Tracks and Scarcity) is commonly
referred to and an easy guide. A quick
online search will lead you to a variety
of articles on this topic, many specific to
the avalanche space. It’s definitely worth
reading up on if you haven’t before.
Without diving into all of these (one could
devote a whole magazine issue to the
topic!), let’s focus on one heuristic trap
in particular, scarcity. Scarcity largely
revolves around the idea that we ignore
or discount elevated risks as they stand
in the way of experiencing something
rare or finite. Fresh, untracked powder
is a great example, or getting a bit of
summit fever on an alpine mission
because ‘I never get the chance to
get out anymore’. It’s fair to say that in
New Zealand, we all feel this pressure
from time to time. Our ski seasons are
short and rarely offer up the consistent,
powder-laden conditions often seen in
areas such as Japan or North America.
Likewise, climbing in NZ has a maritime
climate to contend with, greatly reducing
the frequency of suitable weather
windows for alpine climbing compared
to continental ranges like the European
Alps. Climate change isn’t helping any
of this either, with shorter winters and
retreating glaciers constantly adjusting
what the landscape looks like and how
we can access it.
For your regions avalanche forecast,
visit the New Zealand Avalanche
Advisory at avalanche.net.nz, owned
and managed by the New Zealand
Mountain Safety Council (MSC). Here
you can also find useful resources
such as our online avalanche course,
avalanche safety videos, and a list of
avalanche course providers around the
country.
For more information about the
MSC please visit our website www.
mountainsafety.org.nz where you’ll
find outdoor safety tools, resources,
information and heaps more to help you
stay safe in the outdoors no matter what
your pursuit.
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