Automotive Exports September 2020

Romania had been drilling in the region for
years and had proven reserves amounting
to 200 billion cubic meters.
“The discovery provides Turkey optionality,
which means negotiating leverage with
Russia and other gas suppliers,” he
said. “Such leverage is a big deal when
relations are so tense with Moscow and
when one of Turkey’s natural gas supply
contract with Russia, for 8 billion cubic
meters, expires next year.”
The former US ambassador to Azerbaijan
and White House official continued:
“This discovery provides Turkey leverage
over all of its gas suppliers, whether they
be Russian, Iranian, Algerian, or even
American. And as I describe above, this
leverage over Russia, as well as Iran,
could indeed be useful in Syria, as well as
Libya and Azerbaijan/Armenia.”
When asked if the discovery would
have any positive effect on relations
with the EU, which Ankara has recently
been at odds with especially due
to the developments in the Eastern
Mediterranean, he said it was not likely
as disputes were “fundamentally political
rather than economic in nature” and the
EU has a buyer’s market for natural gas.
“As Ankara reduces its dependence on
Russian natural gas, it will help these
people in NATO’s space better appreciate
that Turkey’s foreign policy in recent
months has been an assertion of the
country’s interests and legal rights in a
pragmatic way that is in the interests of
NATO rather than Russia,” he said.
Ahmet Uysal, the head of the Middle East
Strategic Studies Center (ORSAM), said
becoming an energy hub had been on
Turkey’s international agenda for some
time and the discovery in the Black Sea
would boost Ankara’s position in the
international arena.
Uysal said the energy subject was one of
the fundamental pillars behind foreign
policies, international cooperation and
polarization; therefore, self-sufficiency
in the context of energy was a matter of
great importance for any sovereign state.
“Turkey has been seeking to diversify its
energy market for a while, and looked for
alternatives, thus making this discovery
vital. [The discovery] might reduce the
pressure on its economy,” he said, adding
Turkey was a productive country prior to
finding natural gas, which would be an
additional power drive behind its back.
According to the ORSAM head, EU-Turkey
relations might be positively impacted
after Turkey discovered new reserves
in the region, and he underlined that
the Turkish government announced the
“minimum” discovery amount and this
was likely to increase as Ankara was
determined to drill more.
However, he said EU leadership did not
want a powerful Turkey but was looking
for a state to which it could dictate and
impose, and its stance toward Turkey in
the coming period would be a “good-will
test” for Europe.
Stressing that the EU was heavily
dependent on energy sources and was
a customer of Russia, despite objection
by the US, he said the European
organization sought to diversify its
energy supply, which is why it attached
great importance to the developments in
the Eastern Mediterranean where Turkey
and Greece have been at odds with the
EU standing behind Athens.
He further stated that the discovery
could increase the importance of Turkey
in the eyes of the European leadership
as it wants to have alternative energy
suppliers. And he said that Turkey, if it
discovered more reserves, would not
encounter any difficulties in transferring
gas to the European territory due to its
existing energy routes.
“I believe the EU has been having
difficulty in getting used a powerful
Turkey,” he said, and the latest
developments in the Black Sea had
the potential to “normalize” Turkey’s
relations with the EU. “It would be
better if the EU acknowledged Turkey as
a partner, not as a country begging for
membership,” he said.
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